Heres an idea for finding some better priced winners. I've assembled it from ideas *appropriated* from the generous contributions of people at this forum, so I'II give it an airing here.

It uses the zip rating system in the Sportsman. You could apply Wizard ratings or others along the same lines.

We look at numbers 5, 6 and 7 only.

We are looking for cases where the zip weighting is one or more clear kilos above the handicap weight.

Eg. The official weight is 55.5 kg, the zip rater has it at 56.5kg. or 57kg. or more.

To this we add some quality control:

Must have improving form figures last two starts. eg. 06, 32, 54
Last start within 18 days.

The idea is to locate runners - in a fertile band of the market - the handicapper has underestimated but the zip analyst is onto.

Two qualifiers today:

Sandown R8 - #5 Ruling Eyes
Balaklava R6 - #7 Simonde

Of course, if its the zip man who is overestimating the runner the logic is flawed, isn't it.

But the zip has a solid record over a period of time and my observation (not statistically proven) is that it is worth watching runners the zip rate over the official weight.

Just an idea.

Hermes

On 2002-07-24 11:02, hermes wrote:
Must have improving form figures last two starts. eg. 06, 32, 54

Here's something to keep in mind when looking at system rules.
26 may be better figures than 82.
Without even considering aspects of class etc. a horse may finish second beaten five lengths, then sixth beaten a length.
Similarly with 82. Beaten two lengths eight, beaten five lengths second.
This becomes more complex when you include weights, class and other factors in comparing the last two starts.

You also have to keep an eye on that trainer. Have you seen the ones that are beaten a nauseating number of lengths -- only to clean up in the current race? This is rarely by accident. Look for leaders that appear to tire but are moving in class or distance this race. If they have the form to edge the crowd, this may be the race they're doing it in.

-Duck