....................Newspaper and Coffee......................

1) No Maidens, 2yr. olds, hurdles, stakes, cups, or group races
2) 3 to 6 yr olds racing on a good track only
3) No more than 100m down or 200m up in distance
4) Pe-post on the first 3 betting lines only [newspaper or whatever]
5) Must be the 4th start in from a spell only
6) Last start on the same day of the week 7 or 14 days ago
7) Must have won at the track or distance
8) Wed. or Sat. Metro only
9) If more than 1 selection, choose the lower TAB number

You will not lose. Get into the early money on this :-)

I have altered rule 3. Up more than 200m is obviously OK if the runner has won at the distance [+/- 25m as some tracks have weird distances like 2020m]. A runner can easily step up from 1200m to 1600m for example if it has previously won at 1600m.


....................Newspaper and Coffee......................

1) No Maidens, 2yr. olds, hurdles, stakes, cups, or group races
2) 3 to 6 yr olds racing on a good track only
3) No more than 100m down in distance or won at distance if up
4) Pe-post on the first 3 betting lines only [newspaper or whatever]
5) Must be the 4th start in from a spell only
6) Last start on the same day of the week 7 or 14 days ago
7) Must have won at the track or distance
8) Wed. or Sat. Metro only
9) If more than 1 selection choose the lower TAB number

Bet recommendation 1x4 ew.

Saturday 22nd. April.

B = backmarker P = on pacer M = middle runner L = leader
Ascot
R1/1 Dance To Heaven (3) -P
Eagle Farm
R8/4 Classic Karla (14) -B
Gold Coast
R7/5 Observation (8) -?
Morphettville
R3/4 Bad Boys (NZ) (4) -P
Moonee Valley
R6/2 Serene Prince (9) -B
Toowoomba
R5/9 Buck's Charm (6) -M

Check the pp odds from your favorite source.

The only selection to pass the odds and track condt. rules was:
Ascot R1/1 Dance To Heaven [unp]. Pity it was the only runner.

Crash,, Will have to work on this one.
I only had mr6-2

Thanks

Hi Feather,
Melb. was 'slow', That's the problem with pp odds. Not much help in the wet as they are all over the show and next to useless. Then there are the scratchings to stuff them up further.

Your right about the system needing a bit of work. 3rd. or 4th start in might be worthwhile if I reduce the age to 5yrs. and add a distance rule that works with 3rd or 4th up. It all fits together in Handicapping terms. I've thrown in a bit of an early form clause for one of the 2 or 3 starts from a spell for good measure.

Days since last start was designed to avoid large class jumps from country to city but on reflection the odds priceline rule takes care of that, so that rule is now changed.
Obviously the system can be used any day of the week now so that is a bonus.

....................Newspaper and Coffee......................

1) No Maidens, 2yr. olds, hurdles, stakes, cups, or group races.
2) 1100m to 1850m for C2 and up races only.
3) 3 to 5yr olds racing on a good track only.
4) No more than 100m down in distance or won at distance if up.
5) Pe-post on the first 3 betting lines only [newspaper or whatever].
6) Must be the 3rd or 4th start in from a spell and won or placed in at least 1 of them.
7) Last start 16 days or less.
8) Must have won at the track or distance [+/- 50m].
9) If more than 1 selection choose the lower TAB number.

Cheers.

For the revised system today and what would have been yesterday on the dry tracks [didn't check provincials]. I think a 1x4 ew would work best on this system.

Sunday 23rd

Sunshine Coast
R4/6 My Best Tycoon
Wagga
R5/1 He's Unique
R7/14 Switch To Diamonds

Sat. 22nd. Looking at Ascot, E/farm [no selections] Morphettville

Morphettville
R3/2 Fraaclase [w$4.50 p$1.60p]
R4/1 Dollydeva [$1.90p]
R5/1 Kolase [not sure if this one fitted the odds. Maybe not].
Ascot
R1/1 Dance To Heaven [$2.80p]
R7/8 Siesta Bay [$1.40p]
R8/2 Cristobal [4th]

Crash, Sorry I havan’t replied earlier, but as I was writing this the other day explaining what I had done, I got my self muddled up again. Thank you for the explanation of what I didn’t know.

“If you were looking for the 3rd. favorite pp and there was say
1 runner at 3.50 [1st betting line]” – my thinking favourite
“and 2 at $5 [2nd line]” – thinking equal 2nd favourite
“and 2 more at $7 [3rd line]” – thinking equal 3rd favourite


Rule 5) Must be the 4th start in from a spell only.
I took this as 4th plus starts in from a spell
I went through my results again and found only two match all this, if its 4th in from a spell.
22/4 serene prince – 1st $2.70 14day- last 4 starts x422
27/4 miracle fred – 1st $1.90 14 day- x214

Here is what I was doing:

Mark the first 3 favs/lines that have a c-d-t
Last four starts – fourth or more from a spell
Last start either 7 or 14 days exactly
Distance ..etc

But I am still going to keep working at it. I havan’t had a chance to look at yesterdays or todays yet.

Hi Feather,

Mark the first 3 favs/lines that have a c-d-t
Last four starts – fourth or more from a spell
Last start either 7 or 14 days exactly
Distance ..etc

Nothing wrong with D.I.Y rule changes, especially when they work !!

4th. or more in from a spell makes strong sense handicapping wise as it means the runner is at max. fitness, especially for middle distance races [1600m to 2250m]. Watch out though for horse that have had too many runs in and are on a fitness slide [generally after 8 runs in]. A bit hard to tell from a newspaper however. I use [www] 'firstpastthepost' for about $35 a month which pays for itself over and over. Worth a look at the 'samples' and explanations of what you get [a whole new world].

In my revised rules I have used 'must be 3rd [had 2 runs] or 4th [had 3 runs] start in from a spell' to cover all distances from 1100m to 2250m as plenty of horses are now 'primed' by their 3rd up run for the shorter distances. Higher fitness levels can be reached a lot quicker nowadays, as training methods have changed a fair bit and it's common to see runners 3rd or 4th up winning middle distance events.

Good luck today.

Crash , I didn’t any the same as you, so obviously I am not understanding the rules and I’ve changed them around for my understanding.
With the metro I was only looking at races from 1200m up, Also think 3rd race in from a spell, is a good change.
This is the first time I have any 6yo.
Based on what I have done this past week, this is what I have today.

BR3-1 COGNISANT, 6g,14d,1600m,tb
MR5-3 HASSLE, 5g, 14d,1800m,d
MR8-8 MONO ROCK, 4g 14d,1400m,c
GC7-7 SWEPTRONIC, 4g, 14d, 1400m, c
GC8-1 TELFIRE, 3g, 14d, 1300m, d

AR5-1 SWISS VAULT, 6m, 14d, 1100m, tc

No 6yr. olds in new rules [for good reasons too long to go into here and also without infringing copyright]. Distances are 1100m to 2050m

3) 3 to 5 yr olds only and not a female against a male.

According to new rules:

BR3-1 COGNISANT, 6g,14d,1600m,tb [is 6yrs old and.has never run within 50m of the distance, but will probably win this race now that Mamaluke is out. I have bet against it on Grand Lover e/w which is not a system bet].

MR5-3 HASSLE, 5g, 14d,1800m,d [ok]
MR8-8 MONO ROCK, 4g 14d,1400m,c [ok]

GC7-7 SWEPTRONIC, 4g, 14d, 1400m, c [race is a C1]
GC8-1 TELFIRE, 3g, 14d, 1300m, d [6th start in]
AR5-1 SWISS VAULT, 6m, 14d, 1100m, tc [6yr.old.]

I might have accidently left out the no C1's in the new rules, but they are rubbish races to bet in mostly and full of inconsistent horses who might do anything. Who needs em'?