If a Leader dies on its run or is swamped in the last 50 over say 1350-1400m in a race, would you expect it's next run to be over 1500 or 1300?

My horse did exactly the above last start and this start finds itself running an extra 100m. I have been told by the trainer the horse has a bit of potential and he wants to get me and the other owners a win as soon as possible.

A number of factors to consider imo including eg. past 'best' distances for the nag, track condition last start, previous (run) / current fitness level, class of race before / now, how the race was run last start, weight before / now, barrier before / now, jockey now / before, course now / before etc..

I guess the real question is: Was he being "swamped" late, that is, by more than one horse & he truly had nothing else to give?? If so, then a drop to 1200m or so would seem the sensible thing to do.

Minson is a good example. He actually won 2 races over 1400m, but in both wins he was "swamped" late. Look at his last two starts when asked to run 1400m at the highest level. His trainer was actually setting him for the Cox Plate! It would appear trainers can be wishful thinkers themselves, as much or more so than punters.


Rassmussen was another one who was weak over 1350m. It would be worth seeinf what the trainer does with him next start as well.

'I guess the real question is: Was he being "swamped" late'

Sorry brave chief, don't understand why this would be a major consideration and outside what I have posted would you mind elaborating further pls.

I wrote that before i had a chance to read your reply. I agree with what you say.

I just distinguish between a leader being "swamped" (weak late & several horses attacking the leader with margins closing), to a leader being run down by a single horse with stronger depth to its run, while the leader still maintains its gap on the rest.

the horse we are talking about, what class level is he or she?

What barrier did it start from, did it do much work early, was it 3 wide without cover at any stage, how fast was the first section of the race run?