I wonder if the people who said Sunline was thrown into the Doncaster with 2.5kgs OVER weight for age will think that Northerly is thrown into the Melbourne Cup with 0.5kgs UNDER weight for age?
Do not be under the illusion that the Melbourne Cup is a stronger race than the Doncaster either. The quality of two mile horses in this country is quite poor and when you consider the placings that the imports have achieved in the past nine years it supports that view. Give The Slip and Central Park for example are pacemakers for better stablemates in Europe yet both went mighty close to winning.
So is Northerly a chance at 58kgs? Providing he is trained to run two miles he should have a crack in my opinion.
Any thoughts?

Interesting point Hammers. It does seem that Kersley has brought Northerly back more underdone than previous campaigns.

And what's this blinkers off caper.
Didn't help on Saturday, all Northerly wanted to do was check on what was going on around him.

Likely to be just peaking around Cox Plate time, and then what?

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-09-03 14:38 ]

WFA has no relevance to weights carried in handicaps.

58kgs over 3200m is a lot different to 58kgs over 1600m.

In the past 30 years only one horse has carried 58kgs or more to win the Melb Cup - Think Big in 1975. Yet plenty of horses have carried 58kgs to win a Doncaster.

Vinnie Roe has no chance of winning with 59kgs. The King couldn't do it with 59kgs so there's no way a foreign horse could.

Slowhorse,
Horses are balloted in the Cup relative to the WFA scale so the VRC obviously have disagreed with you for many years.
The only Doncaster winners since 1970 that I can recall with 58+ besides Sunline are Gunsynd and Super Impose - both all time great milers. There haven't been "plenty".
My argument re Northerly is this. Many Sunday experts were crying that Sunline was thrown in to the Doncaster with 58 - presumably they were sour grapes having backed something else and not the "lightly" weighted mare. Surely a horse with a great WFA record like Northerly is well weighted with 58 when a horse like Central Park with moderate European form could run a close second with 57. Vintage Crop sat 5 wide as a 9 year old with 59 or 59.5 and ran third. Super Impose ran 4th with 60 and hadn't won a Cox Plate at the time.
The big weights aren't carried to victory often in the Cup because they don't try. A quality galloper with a reasonable weight such as Northerly should be competitive against what will essentially be a field of handicappers and plodders.
Northerly will only compete in races up to 2000m prior to the Cox Plate over 2040. The Cup is only 10 days later and the only other suitable lead up would be the McKinnon, again 2000m. I believe a horse must have a 2400+ under its belt leading up to the Cup. It is pretty clear Kersley is not Cup bound.
My question is why not.

Previous quality winners-

Let's Elope had 51, Jeune had 56.5, M&P had 56, Saintly had 55.5, Vintage crop had 55.5.

Is Northerly better than those previous winners by several kgs??? I think not.

He would be no hope with 58kgs. Imagine Sunline with 58kgs over 3200m? She'd finished close to last.

Is Northerly 7 kgs betyter than LE? No
Is " 1.5kgs better than J? No
Is " 2kgs better than M&P? No
Is " 2.5kgs better than Saintly? No
Is " 2.5kgs better than VC? No


Every horse with 57kgs or more in this year's cup have no hope of winning - that includes Vinnie Roe 59, Northerly 58, Marienbard 57, Sky Heights 57. The best they can hope for is a placing behind one of the lightweights.

Saintly went from the cox plate into the cup without a run over 2400m. He ran in the metro mid year, but that was long before the cup

The treatment of most of the foreign horses by the handicapper has been harsh. It has spoiled the race in my opinion.

I would have allocated weights like this
Vinnie Roe 57.5
Northerly 56.5
Give the Slip 56
Sky Heights 55

The lightweights are about right.

Saintly was placed in the Metrop over 2400 ( or was it 2600? ) TWO starts before winning the Cup; the start before the Cox Plate. All of Bart's ten winners since Light Fingers have had a 2400+ in the lead up.
M & P, Saintly, Let's Elope were 4YO's when they won the Cup. As 5YO's they would have received more weight. This WFA comparison that I talk of is not my opinion it is a real consideration of all handicappers and ratings people when doing weights. Horses improve as they get older - even from 4 to 5. The WFA scale shows that and it is relevant when weighting handicaps.
I don't know whether Northerly would win with 58 or not but I'm pretty sure we won't find out because Kersley won't have a go. Saintly would probably have won his year with 57 or 57.5 such was the ease of the victory. Given that that being a 4YO that is WFA and Northerly is under WFA, I do not think he would have "no chance". He would have some chance.
You ask me to compare Northerly with the champs you mentioned. I agree that he would struggle on the weights against all you listed. However, there seems to be a fall in quality of Cup fields since the great fields of the early to mid 90's. If you had asked me if Northerly could beat Central Park with 57 or Jezabeel or Brew or Rogan Josh I'd say a definate maybe.
For mine I think Bart has his strongest team since the early 90's. I am a big Magical Miss fan and I think Benarrivo is his Cup smoky if it gets a run at 49kgs. It's a shame that the WFA stars won't be there to test them out.

Good punters who do their own handicapping DO NOT use WFA scale in reference to handicap races. Don Scott for example.

Since I started using this approach and thru out the old outdated WFA approach, I have been winning more. If you adopted the same approach, you would too.

In the US, mares only get a 1.5kg advantage. The advantages mares and 3yos get in some parts of the year are too much under the WFA scale. Especially over shorter distances like 1600m.

Consider this, a 5yo gelding of avg ability gets the same weight as Northerly in a WFA event. Is this fair? Not based on ability. So to use the WFA scale as a reference point is totally flawed from the start.

The metro was over 2600m. You may be right about the timing though. I remember he had a problem with his shoes. Prior to the cox plate, track reports said he was flying and we saw the result of this later.

Handicapping 101

The most important things to consider when assessing a horse's weight in a handicap are
Proven ability, Distance, Previous winners of the race
(Forget about age and gender, if they are good enough they are old enough and gender doesn't matter)

Sunline in the Doni
Proven ability = tonnes
Distance = great miler
Previous winners = yes other great milers carried much more weight

3 ticks in all departments


Northerly in the Melb Cup
Proven ability = proven champ
Distance = never raced beyond 2040m, so must be a risk
Previous winners = only one winner in past 30 years with similar weight, so is a worry. Similar quality horses had much less weight.

Only 1 tick for Northerly.