Perhaps this is best answered by the form followers. Understand first that I am a "blind" systems follower. By that I mean I apply no common sense evaluation to the selection my system picks out. Sometimes it makes me look smart and sometimes......well, you know!

Anyhow today my system picked out NR5 #4 and it won. I'm a place better with unitab so scored $1.30..wahoo! My question however, is how can the punters put a horse so short but it's not a Radio tab tip ? What I mean is why do you think they didn't include it in their selection but the public did ?

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Because it was a horse they actually backed with their own money[?]

DOH!!!
Admittedly Mr Crash you may well have the answer. However being the nice guy that I am (read "gullible individual) I believe that not to be the case.

Is there anyone out there that can give me a form related suggestion or must we live in Mr Crash's hard, hard world ?

BTW thankyou anyway for your prompt reply.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

radio tips are done by race callers. Some are good at form, and some are poor. In this case you just got a poor tipster.

Certain tipsters give ranking to special features like time of spell, barrier trials, last run time, etc.

Apart from Race 6 he seemed to stay clear of resuming horses. Also the horse was in a wide barrier which may have impacted his thoughts. There are so many reasons he could have ruled out the horse it is almost useless trying to work it out.

Also looking at the horses 3 previous runs it likes to run from the front and barrier 12 is not a great place to be for a pace setter.

There just my thoughts on why it could have been dismissed. There are a number of reasons to include it as top selection though which includes it has ben close to the front most races even from a wide barrier and has finished in or near the money, Its the only horse I could see that looked like it had the (limited) class needed to win the race.

Good Luck.

In thanking you Wesmip1 I must confess I was really concerned that Crash had summed up this game in a sentence.

I believe it is such a complex science that one can all too easily find results that back up a particular hypothesis but these same results can support some other theory just as easily.

Your reconstruction of what might have gone through the tipsters mind is quite believable so I can sleep easy again tonight in my little world where there are still some principles left.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Twobets

It's because these type of markets aren't fully "efficient". That is they are partially made up from known information ie. past form, and partially made up from private information ie. stable info. I suspect the Radio Tab tipsters do not have access to private information.

Pixie

I feel one would go crazy trying to work out why a certain tipster didnt select it , maybe a bunch of other tipsters mentioned it , maybe the various rating services had it up there due to its class & form, maybe the racecaller gave it a favourable mention 3 min out till jump time, that usually brings the price in.

The market does not frame its prices around one tipster, we could if we chose to , which is not a bad idea seeing their SR is approx 45% for the top 3 selections.

One way to do this, is to use the average price of its last 2 starts & bet the overs or unders. Whichever one feels comfortable using.
Primitive but effective on its day, if all the short prices Favs dont decide to get up all day.

What one could be looking at, is how well the other races performed & not so much the anomilies of just one race.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

Thanks for the input folks. I do see your angle AngryPixie, and I think it's stuff like this that keeps me a system follower. As a blind systems follower (using prices and money flow only), I have found my results to be amazingly consistant over the years and I believe this is because it effectively ignors all the various inputs ( there must 4 billion to consider ) and simply averages out your results more. Also I only bet favorites so this also aids consistency. ( Many would say consistantly downhill of course! ).

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"