Interesting to note that with the exponential growth in the size of Maria's bets, her balance doubled in the last month, with a sizable chunk of that being made on the last day. Also, the average price of her lay's on the last day was 7.75, with nothing being particularly short, and an overall strike rate of 85.88%, so IMO her success has a lot to do with her staking.

I realise that 2 days info is nowhere near enough to gauge long term profitability, but there you go. Hopefully at least 80% of them will do the right thing and get beaten.

I will put up lays for today and tomorrow, using a theoretical bank of $3000 and use the exact price range and % stake that Maria did.

Any comments, good bad or indifferent are most welcome.

Balance $3000
0-3.5 $30
3.55-7.4 $18
7.6-11 $12

Todays losers.

G1 6 CLEARLOVE
G2 4 SCHIBELLO
G3 2 PRINCESS PEDRILLE
G4 2 CLERIC
G5 8 KING CLIP
G6 13 SO FANTASTIC
G7 3 GRAND TRAVERSE
G8 6 NOTICED

S1 2 YOU'RE FANTASTIC
S2 7 MERRIER
S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY
S4 1 BOORTKOI DRAGON
S5 10 GET THEM TIGRESS
S6 10 MYCOLADA
S7 5 ELECTRONIC MILLION
S8 9 IN AN INSTANT
S9 7 PRIZED PACKET

Michael, if you read this, what was you're overall strike rate for your lay's thread? Perhaps with Maria's staking you would have been better off?

Good luck, Mark.

I assume you will deduct 5% from the winning bets, and will you use a daily staking plan as Maria did, or will it be from race to race as she wanted to do but could not stay glued to her computer? I also assume that you will exclude any horse outside the $11 range?

There were 376 selections in my lay method for 68 winners ("accidents" as Maria so aptly calls them). This was including the periods when I had the p.p market limit of $3.50 (later changed to $3.00) and also included horses resuming from a break which I again later eliminated. By my calcs that was a strike rate of approx 82 winners every 100 selections.

Yes, maybe using Maria's staking method my results might have been better. It is certainly something to think about.

Again, good luck. I'm sure many of us forumites will be very interested in your lays.

Michael, yes I'll take out 5% from winning bets, and stick to day to day updates.

I am actually placing the bets for these 2 days. 2 out of 2 so far @ 6.4 & 2.8.

I'm pretty sure you would show a profit with your 82% strike rate as a lot of them were short.

S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY

No comments about the 50's + winner??, I'm disappointed.
Remember, these are my 3rd pick in the race.

Add these Albany lay's to the mix.

A1 5 COUNTRY JOY
A2 13 STARQUIST
A3 4 AMBA ALE
A4 7 OPEN EYRE
A5 5 IRON MONGER
A6 2 CLASSY GRACE
A7 1 LITTLESIXFOOT

I wouldnt be too disappointed, that was obviously way out of price range and would have been left alone, no? Although it makes you question the selection process. A bit early to worry about. Good luck with it anyway.

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.

Mark, as the Lays are the 3rd choice of your "bet" selections I would be somewhat concerned.

Have you checked the 2230 races to see how the 3rd choice would have fared if you had eliminated those over $11 just as you are doing for the current lay method? In other words, is it possible those that started under $11.10 may have shown a profit?

Having said that, I am looking at a lay system based on prices, and as a matter of coincidence my selections in Sale race 5 and Gosford race 5 were also your selections - they were both beaten.

[QUOTE=Mark]
Balance $3000
0-3.5 $30
3.55-7.4 $18
7.6-11 $12

Todays losers.

G1 6 CLEARLOVE no bet
G2 4 SCHIBELLO 7.4 +17.10
G3 2 PRINCESS PEDRILLE 10 +11.40
G4 2 CLERIC 4.6 -64.80
G5 8 KING CLIP 9.4 +11.40
G6 13 SO FANTASTIC no bet
G7 3 GRAND TRAVERSE no bet
G8 6 NOTICED no bet

S1 2 YOU'RE FANTASTIC 6.4 +17.10
S2 7 MERRIER 2.8f +28.50
S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY no bet
S4 1 BOORTKOI DRAGON no bet
S5 10 GET THEM TIGRESS 7.0 +17.10
S6 10 MYCOLADA no bet
S7 5 ELECTRONIC MILLION 9.0 +11.40
S8 9 IN AN INSTANT no bet
S9 7 PRIZED PACKET 5.8 +17.10

A1 5 COUNTRY JOY 5.6 +17.10
A2 13 STARQUIST 3.7f +17.10
A3 4 AMBA ALE 4.7 +17.10
A4 7 OPEN EYRE no bet
A5 5 IRON MONGER no bet
A6 2 CLASSY GRACE 10.5 +11.40
A7 1 LITTLESIXFOOT no bet


24 picks, 13 bets, 12 winners, 92.3% strike rate.
Total profit = + $129.00, or +4.3% of balance.

Friday's starting balance $3129
Bets will be $31.29 (1%), $18.77 (0.6%), and $12.51 (0.4%).

A promising start.

From all of my selections, (which admittedly I did not post), top 2 picks won 46%, 3rd pick won 8%, and the winner was not in my top 3 in 46% of races. Which is pretty close to my long term average of 46/13/41. 3rd pick was less than normal which accounts for the good start.

Comments, ideas anyone???