Oh yes it's true.

Every [fit for the run] horse running can be a ****** or a Champion depending on the race pace, the track and distance and the barrier and depending on what type of pace suits the horse, the experience of the jockey. Some runners could win with your Granny aboard [on-pacers drawn within 1 to 9 barrier or back-markers from a wide alley] and others need a very experienced jockey aboard [leaders who need an experienced judge of pace over the distance].

Any horse on the day can have a rating from very low to very high, depending on all of the above. Working it all out is the form student's key.
My original thoughts are also the reason that favorites often get a drubbing and long-shots gets up and win!

Well Foinavon 100-1 (a milk cart horse) won the Grand National so I guess that proves your point Crash.

Though still Favs win 30% of races and the REST of the field wins 70%!

Everything must have been perfect on the day for Foinavon and terrible for the rest of the field! :-0

Favorites lose so often because the public punter judges [95% of them anyway] the horse on every bit of previous form EXCEPT it's natural pace [not in the form guides] and how that will fit in to the natural pace of the runners it's is about to compete against.

Understanding and knowing a horse's pace is the next step [up] in form study understanding I think and from that position a much truer value of the odds on offer can be judged.

I'm still learning and there is a lot more to learn. Spending a bit of money on a form service that tells me every horse's pace in any race, has been the best investment I've ever made. I've certainly noticed a big improvement in my punting account.

I find great value in targeting backmarkers in outside alleys in races with more than one leader which provides plenty of pace [the backmarker The Jackal winning from the outside barrier last Saturday was a good example of value].

Leaders with a good jockey in races where they are the only leader in the field [jockey can control the pace] is another good earn area too.

worse than that crash, the entire field fell, Foinavon about a kilometer behined vitually walked through the hole in the fence and staggered over the line, I'm not joking...... a few jockeys managed to re-mount to finish and nearly caught him! (think it was a him)

Crash,

It seems that pace and draw together are really only investigated in the greys and trots, and perhaps the Golden Slipper, the rest of the time - it's pretty much ignored.

I still haven't been able to quantify pressure in a race, it's not the first sectional, it's not the last, and it certainly isn't the race time, but it's in there somewhere.

Me old mate California Dane is the prime example, he just cannot handle anything bigger than a low grade Group 3, put him back to Listed and he bolts home, put him up to Group 2 and he runs midfield.

This is a track record holder and his best times, say he should easily win a Group 1, but he can't take the pressure and runs tailed off - yet the racetime is slower!

I know a lot of punters and bookies use speed maps, but not in the way you describe, so you're probably getting quite a few overlays with your method.

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I remember a member a few years ago who had a web site based on speed ratings, very good it was until he closed it down.

crash,

Do you mind telling me where you get your form for determining if it is a leader, on pace, midfield, backmaker ?

Or how you determine the classification from form data available.

Thanks

I have been using Past the Post for about a year: http://www.pastthepost.com.au/ There is about 5 different form guide options.
I use 'fields' to get the basic lists I've shown here and I mainly use 'Time-long form' [last 10 starts and includes adjusted times for distance and other time considerations too] for serious form study. Most horses are rated [dry or wet ratings] and almost all have running position [L, P, M, B]. The site is cheap for the info available so it doesn't have scratchings.

Todays 3 selected runners were 60/1 16/1, 18/1 so they didn't really firm into betting propositions but I did have a small e/w on the 16/1 for zero result. The track was dead 4 too.

crash,

Thanks for the answer.

I'll check them out. Interestingly I checked those horses on Racing and sports and found that

7/1 4x16 General Ledger (11)" B - regarded as on the pace
8/1 3314 Calder (8)" L - - regarded as on the pace but not the only one.

Interestingly though if you use the AES and AFS figures Calder was far superior to the other horses and was an obvious leader.

7/7 90x0 Baron Ruthven (16)" B - regarded as an Off Midfield ( Backmacker in this race)
8/8 1009 Cavalier Queen (12)" L - regarded as n the pace but so were a lot of other horses.
9/3 9x53 Voukefalos (14)" B - regarded as midfield but AFS suggest a strong finisher.
Just thought I would mention it as it would suggest that different places regard horses as different types of runners.

Good Luck.

Thanks for the site Crash, good free course diagrams and time info on there

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