All,

For those that do time analysis how many lengths do you adjust for dead, slow and heavy on average ?

Good Luck.

Hi Wes,

I don't rate races on heavy tracks or distances over 1800m. Here's what I use. Figures below are seconds, not lengths.

Dist	D	S
1000	0.85	1.6
1050	0.925	1.7
1100	1	1.8
1150	1.05	1.88
1200	1.1	1.95
1250	1.175	2.02
1300	1.25	2.1
1350	1.325	2.175
1400	1.4	2.25
1450	1.475	2.32
1500	1.5	2.4
1550	1.575	2.49
1600	1.65	2.58
1650	1.7	2.65
1700	1.75	2.72
1750	1.825	2.81
1800	1.9	2.9

Chinbok,

This is much appreciated.

It is hard finding other people to compare times with as there isn't many sources of informaiton on it. Do you know of any good websites with this sought of info ?

Thanks

Hi Wes,

Don't know of any websites. You could try searching through the ausrace forums. Their archives go back many years.

I put my times together a couple of years ago and can't remember the exact methodology but I used 2-3 years of race results downloaded form unitab. From memeory, I think I only used the metro tracks or the metro and provincial.

Cheers

Wes,

Are you using track variants as well?

Wes.,

It's probably due to the donkeys years of research experience by such
people as the late Don Scott - His findings over many years suggested that,
Time - Pace - Speed ratings would lead one to the poor house because they are worse than useless.

His final sentence is a Gem,
" If you meet such a character, direct him to the nearest psychiatric institution. He certainly needs help."

He did like to call a Spade a Spade when it came to his passion -
Racing Research.

chinbok,

I have not got track variants to its full potential yet. I have noticed a few places produce very quick (or slow) times though and I do a slight adjustment for it but I would not say it is an accurate adjustment.

There are several ways to work out the track variantions and I am still condering the best way to do it. The options I have include:

1. Avg time of winner over a large number of races (500+ races).
2. Avg time of a consistent horse that has run across multiple tracks (this is good but hard to do ).
3. Track records for each distance.

Can I ask which one you prefer to use ? Depending on which one you use you are always going to get those slight differences which could cause different selections. In some races 0.1 secs can be a huge difference to whether a horse is rated as top selection or 5th selection.

Good Luck.

Racer,

I like the research and try and find things which work well.

Its obvious that the horse that runs the fastest time will win and therefore the horse should be rated by the potential times they could run in the race. For example a horse running 1.00 consistently should be a horse that is consistently running 1.10 .

The problem arises when horses do not run to their best times or even their avg times. This is where other form analysis needs to be taken into account to determine the fitness of the horse and whether any improvement can/should be expected.

I think the main reason people don't use it is because it is hard to find and compute yourself.

Good Luck.

re Track Variants

I used to convert the time to a rating, then compare this to the "class par" rating for each race. Then simply calc the raceday ave & hey presto you have a track variant for the day. Its not rocket science, but neither is any form of ratings. This game is 100% opinion & guestimates.

Like Crash, i too gave up because of the time spent on compiling the ratings. You also have to put up with an ongoing series of problems, such as:

* No sectionals on certain days or races.
* The odd hand-timed run or runs per meeting (next to useless)
* The small amount of races per meeting to estimate the track variant
* Rain during a meeting. Times slow down, track deteriorates. On these days time comparisons are meaningless. What was the track variant on race 1? Race 8?

I have some par time info for Belmont & Ascot if interested

Wesnip,

Sorry I don't get on this forum much but I did see your post re Track Differences and factors for D,S etc.

I have used winning times and Last 600 times for different distances to get track models for most Metro, Prov and Cty NSW tracks. Tracks do vary substancially both for Time and 600T over distance. I strongly suggest you compare the same / similar class races to get par times for each track distance (difficult for cty tracks). My track models are for 50m incruments for each track.

I spent about 8 years adjusting mine but I now realise I should have stopped adjusting a lot earlier. As long and you are consistent in the way you create the track models and have basis models done thats enough.

What is just as important is daily varient factors (DVF) - To do these you need to compare the long term average time for good condition and same distance vs the days time and 600t for the same distance. You cannot use fixed deductions for Dead/Slow reliably. The most thorough way to get the DVF is to review each race after it is done to get the DVF.

Once you have both Daily varience factors (these can even change for each race in one day) and your track models you can do speed ratings with a bit of confidence.

Please note after over 10 years exp of doing this its still not going to make you rich unless your game enough to put large dollars down. I do make money from my analysis but its no where near as much and my day job. (You can impress your friends with it though). It does work better when you have a consistent dry season. Slow and Dead tracks luck comes in a lot more.

Good luck with it.

__________________
Regards,
Pete