All,

Here is a concept from handicapping that seems to work well (because it is time consuming and people don't use it).

I am not sure how to explain it so I will just do an example.

See Eagle Farm Race 1 on 16/5/2007. For those who don't want to go search for the race here is the finishing order of the top 7 horses:

1	CONQUERING SPIRIT	58.5	.8	D GRIFFIN	9	$4.5	8450	3,2		GILLIAN HEINRICH
2	KEELROW	53.0	.8	AMY TAYLOR	12	$4.5	2600	9,6		TONY SEARS
3	LADY SHOWHEART	53.5	.9	S SEAMER	10	$15	1300	4,3		KEVIN KEMP
4	JELLICLES	55.0	1.1	S KATSIDIS	8	$7	650	1,1		KELLY SCHWEIDA
5	AGNES DREAM	55.5	1.3	C WHITELEY	1	$4.25F	0	2,4		ALAN BAILEY
6	CLASSIC FORCE	55.5	2.3	J BOWDITCH	6	$17	0	12 ,12		TREVOR BAILEY
7	JEWEL VAULT	54.0	3.5	B PENGELLY	11	$17	0	11 ,11		DESLEIGH FORSTER

Lets have a look at each horse from this race :

JEWEL VAULT - No Races Since
CLASSIC FORCE - No Races Since
AGNES DREAM - No Races Since
JELLICLES - WIN IPSWICH 30/5/2007
LADY SHOWHEART - WIN TOOWOOMBA 26/5/2007
KEELROW - No Races Since
CONQUERING SPIRIT -No Races Since

The only 2 horses which have had a race since this race have won. This points to a good indicator for the top two finishers who are yet to race again.

Based on this we can assume that KEELROW should be a likely winner in his next race as will CONQUERING SPIRIT.

We can extend this further to identify whether they went up or down in class to get the wins and we find that :

JELLICLES - WIN (DOWN IN CLASS 13K -> 7K)
LADY SHOWHEART - WIN (DOWN IN CLASS 13K -> 10K)

If we find KEELROW or CONQUERING SPIRIT running in a 10K race or under it would be worth a bet.

This is a real time example so we will have to wait for these 2 horses to run in order to see the outcome of the race.

But you have to agree it makes common sense.

Good Luck.

Another example of how this works (much older though):

SHOWIFY was beaten by MAXIMGUN on 31/08/2006 in an 11K race. SHOWIFY went on the win his next race (15/09/2006) by 5.5 lengths in a 9K race. This suggested that MAXIMGUN should be a bet on 9K races or under.

MAXIMGUN races in a 20K race on 17/09/2006 - NO BET (Over 9K)
MAXIMGUN races in a 8K race on 3/11/2006 - LOST
MAXIMGUN races in a 11K race on 17/12/2006 - NO BET (Over 9K)
MAXIMGUN races in a 8K race on 26/12/2006 - BET WIN $15.30

This was an obvious bet when you look at the other favs in the race:

NARING GOLD - Neither horse that had beaten him in the previous race had gone on to win anything ( one raced in a 20K race the other in an 8K race ).

PENHALE - Neither horse from his 3rd on 21/11/2006 had gone on to win anything.

URBAN FORCE was a chance with the horse that ran 2nd to him going on to win a victory at 8K

SYDIBELLE - was also a chance with one horse behind him going on to win an $8K race.

The others in the race had no form from prior races to suggest they could win.

Wesmip, this sounds so logical. I would love to follow this up. Can you please advise me where I can get this information about each horse and whether they have run since please?

Rhystan,

You can use e x p e r t f o r m . c o m

Just look at the daily form and check a horses history in their horse search. Its a long tiresome process which I will automate in the next few weeks to see if it is worthwhile following.

Good Luck.

The idea certainly has merit and in fact works, as long as you consider that the class of opposition has to be around the class of the previous race and hopefully in a short space of time.

The only drawback is that it is EXTREMELY time consuming to follow unless you have it automated some way.

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Im still trying to work out how I am going to automate this and what sort of cutoff to use on how far to go back.