ive been using ..a system of sorts very similar to yours .. except i only go as far as no 6 saddle cloth....

Number 6 & 7 were pretty close when I did the stats.

What else do you know about my system??

Privateer

I have read most of your previous post here about stats and have found them very interesting and have also looked into Mr Pareto's theory.

I am interested to hear if the stats have held their level of impotance over the time you have been using them. What I mean by that is, if you found that the horses place strike rate was the number 1 thing that pointed to them running a place 3 years ago, is it still the number thing today that points to them running a place at their next start?


Thanks

Wise One

In a word, yes. The stats hold their consistency. The only point of interest perhaps is that the stats that I use don't seem to go as well in fields where the horses are of poor quality. The better the quality of the field, the better the stats seem to perform. As a consequence, I introduced a race class factor based on total average prizemoney (won by each runner multiplied by the number of runners divided by the number of runners) into the method 18 months ago that has worked well. (The final average must be a certain amount for the race to qualify)

Privateer

Privateer

I very interesting stat. Do you mean that you add all the runners average prizemoney and then divide it by the number of runners,or have I misunderstood your above formula?

I am currently looking at the stats of a horses last 2 placing and where those placing were ie Saturday meeting versus midweek/provincial meetings and their placing ( 1st - 4th )

I have found some interesting results in the small sample that I have completed so far, but need to do more work on they to find how reliable they are


Wise one

Sorry, my error. You're right Wise One.

As a matter of interest on the subject of form, I only concern myself with a horses most recent start where it must have finished in the first 2. I have found that WHERE it ran to achieve that last start finish is pretty much irrelevant (as is the distance from the winner if it ran second).

Cheers

Privateer