I have noticed every now then a horse that is odds on before they jump finishes up at $2 most of the time. Sometimes It's between $2.20 and $2.50

Durnig my test on paper there have been 25 such bets for 12 winners and 17 places.

Outlay: $25.00
Return: $54.90

What would be a suitable staking for the win betting?

I have considered the following. 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55. You stop afer a winner. And a winner any where would make a profit. No need to get greedy.

mad gambler

G'day Mad. presumably the $54.90c is for an EW outlay of $50 ? I think your idea of a staking plan is sound, almost a bet to nothing I would say. i.e. you couldn't do much harm.

G'day Mad Gambler. Let's take a look at what you're considering. Your strike rate for the win is 48%. Looking at your series of proposed bets, you've allowed for a streak of 9 losers in a row, with the 10th loser wiping out your bank. I wonder if you've ever been to a casino. The roulette wheel comes to mind. If someone were to bet on red, black, odds or evens they would have roughly a 48.64% chance of winning, which is similar to what your system is achieving. I've only been a casino a handful of times, and I've lost count of the number of times I've seen a series of 10 or more losers up come up on the board in regards to if one had been betting on red, black, odds or evens. Essentially what I'm saying is, yes the majority of the time you will hit a winner within your series of progressive bets, but it only takes one run of 10 losers to lose the bank. I'd recommend against any kind of progressive betting. It might win in the short term, but eventually it will wipe out your bank. If you interested in developing a system, I think you would really be better off not considering favourites. Just my thoughts. Good luck, regardless.

Silver_and_sand, mathes 100 % correct of course, as the method though shows better than 1/1 money return surely the odds over a long long period couldn't do any harm whether you used levels or a progression? I mean if you used the progression you would have say 400 bets @ 1 unit, say about 300 bets a @ 2 units etc etc etc all with a 48% win S/R at ave odds of about 2.25.

Betting level stakes with Mad Gambler's system would be safe assuming the strike rate and average price are consistant, but pretty pointless as far as I can tell. If $2.25 is the assumed average price of a winner at a 48% strike rate then level stakes betting would result in only an 8% profit, which seems fairly low really, though some might be happy with that. Realistically, the 48% strike rate seems quite high, and most likely is just an anomaly, especially considering that it is the result of only 25 paper bets. Mad Gambler needs to monitor his system on paper much longer so he can establish what the long term strike rate and average price really are. If the long term strike rate drops to 44% or less, or if the average price drops to $2.08 or less, then the system will lose money in the long run even at level stakes.

I'm not sure I entirely follow what Mad Gambler is saying regarding his staking idea. He says a winner anywhere in the series makes a profit. Unless there's something I'm not understanding, using the 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55 sequence, assuming an average price of $2.25 means that any winner after 3 or more consecutive losing bets will result in a loss.

Bet #1. 1 unit. If win, then profit = 1.25 units. If lose, then total loss = 1
Bet #2. 1 unit. If win, then profit = 0.25 units. If lose, then total loss = 2
Bet #3. 2 units. If win, then profit = 0.50 units. If lose, then total loss = 4
Bet #4. 3 units. If win, then loss = 0.25 units. If lose, then total loss = 7
Bet #5. 5 units. If win, then loss = 0.75 units. If lose, then total loss = 12
Bet #6. 8 units. If win, then loss = 2.00 units. If lose, then total loss = 20
Bet #7. 13 units. If win, then loss = 3.75 units. If lose, then total loss = 33
Bet #8. 21 units. If win, then loss = 6.75 units. If lose, then total loss = 54
Bet #9. 34 units. If win, then loss = 11.5 units. If lose, then total loss = 88
Bet #10. 55 units. If win, then loss = 19.25 units. If lose, then bank is lost.

And to work out how often one would expect to bust their bank with this system, the calculation would be 0.52 multiplied by itself 10 times = 0.0014555, which would be roughly once in every 687 bets, though there's no reason why 2 series of 10 straight losers couldn't occur within a few dozen bets of each other.

I hope all this makes sense. I'd suggest steering clear of progressive betting, as sooner or later, the unexpected run of outs will occur and bust the bank, and your confidence. Again, just my thoughts, and good luck if you decide otherwise.

Everyone seems to say that the progressive stakes method will kill you in the end. Fair enough, you're all more experienced than I - but how do you get ahead? Once you have accumulated enough units of profit, you would want to change the unit size, to accomodate this. I can see how if things go bad then you'd be done for, but you would want to accelerate profit size, surely?

I really know nothing about staking plans, Im curious.....