Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 25th September 2007, 11:59 AM
Raven Raven is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
Default Laying on Bet.fair

hi all,

ive just opened a BF account & am considering my wagering options.

to those that have experience laying on BF:

is it hard to lay a horse that are currently $10 or more in the market?

do you have to stick to the top 4 or 5 in the market?

i know it all depends on the markets liquidity, etc, but i just want to get an overall impression. i assume the higher the price, the more likelihood of an unmatched lay.

cheers
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 25th September 2007, 12:38 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
Smile

Raven

Get a hold of the Betfair Advantage Tool which will allow you to compare historic Betfair prices against the three Australian tote's.

I work in the below $11 (10/1) range with an average Betfair matched price of $7.08. These selections are usually the 3rd, 4th or 5th favourites. You'll get matched on the longies, it's just whether the price you have to offer is representative of the horses chance.
__________________
Pixie
"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 25th September 2007, 12:46 PM
Raven Raven is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
Default

thx Pix, will do
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 25th September 2007, 04:35 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
Default

Raven,

Depends on how much you want matched.

If your laying more than $50 you probably are only going to be able to get it matched on the top 2 in the market.

Good Luck.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 25th September 2007, 04:42 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
If your laying more than $50 you probably are only going to be able to get it matched on the top 2 in the market.


No you'll get alot more than $50 matched most days on selections othen than the top 2. Even Monday meetings you'll be able to churn away.
__________________
Pixie
"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 25th September 2007, 07:09 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
Default

AngryPixie,

I should rephrase that :

You are not going to get more than $50 matched at "Reasonable odds". For example if the horse is $20 on the tabs you are probably not going to get $50 matched anywhere up to $50 ( for a liability of $2500 ). You may get it matched at $100 which means you have a liability of $5000.

But if you lay at those odds you are asking for trouble....

Good Luck.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 25th September 2007, 11:20 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
Thumbs up

Wes yes good point. You need to work the UK markets if your interested in laying selections at those higher prices.
__________________
Pixie
"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 26th September 2007, 12:17 PM
Raven Raven is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
Default

thx for the interesting responses guys, just the stuff i was after

Chrome, they're exactly the opportunities Im looking for, to back & lay the same horse with the adv in your favour.

the bread & butter will still have to be some form study though, i have an idea of a 'type' of horse to lay when they are in the market.

but this leads me to a new question:

are certain types of races good races to lay in?? think the G1 1400m hcp at Caul on sat, big field, looked an open race on paper (I would have layed Bon Hoffa ftr, I backed Niconero). Big fields, open races

or is it best to lay an individual horse for handicapping reasons? (lacks pace, gets back, ? on pace, not suited at Caul, ? on jock, under odds, etc)
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 26th September 2007, 02:08 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
Default

Sorry to sound like a broken record Raven, but this is exactly how layers go broke.

They try to pick the best races to lay in, the horse with the worst form, the horse rising in class, big fields etc etc.

The only way to profit from directly laying one horse per race is to lay it at a realistic price. No matter what the horse is like,the price has to allow you to make a longterm profit, even if it wins.

"Am I happy to have layed this horse at these odds, if it actually wins"

That's the only question you need to ask.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 26th September 2007, 02:13 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
Question

Go broke? Do you mean what I said or what Raven said?
__________________
Pixie
"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 10:07 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655