Hi Wesmip
I wonder if you could run a query on last start winners. All days. All classes.
Price to 5/1.
a) Winning margin to 1 length
b) Winning margin more than 1 length.

With thanks
Salty

Not a problem ... see below


Selections: 7524
Win Strike Rate : 25%
WIN ROT : 86% (loss of 14%)


Selections: 7435
Win Strike Rate : 29%
WIN ROT : 91% (loss of 9%)

So in case you want a few more run here are a couple more lengths :

More than 2 lengths ( does not include 2 lengths):

Selections: 3737
Win Strike Rate : 32%
WIN ROT : 94% (loss of 6%)

More than 3 lengths ( does not include 3 lengths):

Selections: 1866
Win Strike Rate : 32%
WIN ROT : 91% (loss of 9%)

4 lengths or higher:

Selections: 1141
Win Strike Rate : 33%
WIN ROT : 95% (loss of 5%)

5 lengths or higher:

Selections: 613
Win Strike Rate : 36%
WIN ROT : 98% (loss of 2%)


Hope that helps out ...

Good Luck.

It certainly does. I just want to work on an extra angle or two. What amount of time do these results refer to?

Thankyou again
Salty

Wes, that's really interesting stuff, as I spend half of my time trying to isolate VERY simple systems that break even or just a bit better, i.e. 1 or 2 rules.

One thing there that intriges me though, those stats are obviously for the next start, so what interests me is the NEXT start again, especially if it failed after the win, and also if it's worth looking at the place with all of the above?

WESMIP.
I wonder if you could run me something?
The rule is it has to be TAB No 1.
And the other rule is it has to start at around $4 or over.
Thanks.

Wed. 10 Oct.
Albury
r10/3 [5w] 1.90p
r8/9 1.80p
r7/8 1.40p
r6/1 unp
r5/8 unp
Belmont
r9/13 2.60p
r8/5 1.80p
r7/4 unp
r6/2 2p
r5/2 1.60p
r4/1 1.50p
r2/9 1.60p
Strathalbyn
r7/6 [5.30w] 2p
r6/2 unp
r5/3 1.80p
Ballarat
r8/9 1.80p
r7/13 2.60p
r6/7 [5w] 1.80p
r5/3 unp

Work out the 2 simple rules to this Party and you'll have a nice little place system that more than breaks even [keep it to yourself folks]. No, no clues.

Nice, Crash....and as you say very simple. Anyone who follows your thoughts on the forum would have no difficulty in working it out .

How far back can you suggest it has worked? Or was yesterday just a special day?

ok after further analysis I have no idea what the two rules are....

oh well... good luck to those who worked it out ... but I did come across something else I found interesting so thanks for sharing crash.

Good Luck.

2.5 years

Well that isn't as easy to test but


The results were pretty much in line with the win stats. For instance greater then 2 lengths gave a return of 95% as opposed to 94%.

For 5 lengths or higher the place results was a return of 99%.

Good Luck