I won't have time to follow this closley today, so just thought i make my lay selections to see if they lose and so are successful for me.

I'll assume that my lay will be matched as the odds i will set will be at a premium to the tote odds (by 2.00 units). So this will attract a backer since its good odds for the selection. This is done so I could work out my potential liabilities and so calculate a p/l at the end of the meet. Liability limit is 100~ units. When I have more time, closer to the jump I'd set my odds based on what the history of trades has been so I know what the betfair market has been paying and set my odds accordingly.

tote = tote.com.au

Starting Bank: 1,000

Geelong
WIN only
Race 2:
8-The Lion King
8.50 tote / 10.50 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 63

Race 3:
10-Tan Jugah
12.10 tote / 14.10 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 84.6

Race 5:
1-Furious Dee
9.20 tote
11.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 67.2

Race 6:
6-Muzza's Star
8.20 tote
10.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 61.20

Race 7:
5-O'reilly Tycoon
15.20 tote
17.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 102.20

Total Liabilities: 378.2

Good luck pengo.
IMHO your risk/reward ratio is totally out of whack.

Yeah I'll see how I go over the course of a week.

Also want to try laying the favourite 5m to jump, see how that goes over a week. And if that don't work too well or even if it doesn't, dutch laying the radio tab top 3 selections.

Without consideration of the lay odds, picking horses won't work.

Example - Lion King was $16.50 on Betfair.

Tan Jugah is $26.00

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You make no sense....

Lion king didn't win, so my lay was successful.

So long as the lay is successful, then who cares what the odds where?

Yes Pengo, you are correct, but you are missing the point of the maths being flawed.

You can trial something at $1.10 for every selection and you'll win, but the real world price will break you.

Yes, the horse lost and you won, but just one of those horses winning at the real price will strip all the profit from the losers, because you estimated an unreal price.

You might have a winner free day, but even 7 days down the track just one winner at $75.00 instead of $20 will kill the bank.

Don't forget that you are also inflating the amount won, instead of $6.00 for a liability of $100, you'll only win $2.00 for a liability of $100 because the price is so much more.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg