From time to time, I'm asked by former clients to test their system that behaves erratically.
This last one was based on win and place %, days to last start plus a few other unique angles he worked out.
This system, although in profit, had the tendency to bring up horses at long odds, but they inevitably failed to perform.
Any guesses why?
Good luck

Considering that any method of predicting winners is always going to be a partially imprecise exercise, things can always go astray.

The lack of truly run races [pace] in the eastern states -especially in Sydney and Melb. - have become a handicappers nightmare, so I guess it would be throwing a lot of systems out of whack too. The form of runners is almost impossible to handicap or compute, if the race pace is not true. It's become so bad, that I'm thinking of switching all my betting to WA only.

Maybe the fact that horses are at the worst level of quality\capability
in 50 years - there are still multi thousands of runners but they are not
worth two bob.

I mean relative to one another's ability it's a wonder
they can't at least perform reasonably, regardless of how qualityless.

99% of races at present one would not even give a cursory glance and this damned EI did not help the state of affairs - how long
it will take to pick up again is anyone's guess - it needs a rapid FIND
of top NZ or even pommie sires, but I just don't see either possible
in a hurry.

IOMACA

Are the selections lower down in the weights ( below 55 kg)

Below 55kg have appalling strike rates.

Cheers.
darky

I just checked my system, and those selections below 55kg definitely had a lower strike rate, but their average price was nearly $3 more than those 55kg or more, so it balances out a little.

System selections 55kg or more:
23.8% strike rate
$9.70 ave. winner

System selections less than 55kg:
15.6% strike rate
$12.62 ave. winner

Are others noticing the same thing with their systems too?

Given the better strike rate, maybe I should be betting a little more on those carrying 55kg or more. Thanks for the tip.

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