OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Fav strike rates verses prices

16th February 2008, 07:39 PM

Crackone

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Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 368

Fav strike rates verses prices

Hi Chrome pulled this from another post

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

3421 races
1056 winners
32.58% S/R
Loss 12.23%
Average dividend $2.69
Minimum Dividend $1.10
Maximum Dividend $6.40

2000 -10.07%
2001 -8.57%
2002 -23.14%
2003 -6.49%
2004 -13.30%
2005 -7.45%
2006 -4.59%
2007 -24.53%

As you can see, some years you lose more than 20%, some years you lose as little as 4.59%

Under 10% it would be quite possible to make a small percentage using best tote.

I'd recommend using Betfair and setting a price limit on your bets, if it's matched go ahead, if not, pass the race.

Sticking to hot favourites under $2.00 you only lose 7.83%, but you are far more likely to get "value" on the easy favourites. For example you won't get $3.00 about an even money shot, but you might just get $7.50 about a 5/1 shot.

My Question is do you or anyone else have S/Tab prices for the Fav at the jump.

eg. under $2 lose of 7.83%

$2.05 to $2.50 lose of ????% and so on.

reasoning for this is a bookmaker is offering $0.30 above S/tab win price.
Plus 30c on a $2 Fav is 15% extra.

16th February 2008, 10:48 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,437

Snap it up and stick to horses under $3.00,use a reverse kelly...the shorter the price, the more you have on it.

I can't believe they'd give you $1.40 about a $1.10 shot though...surely there is a getout loophole somewhere for them???

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17th February 2008, 09:52 AM

Crackone

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Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 368

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

The Powerplay is only applicable on win bets where the base dividend is over $2.00 found the fine print

17th February 2008, 10:48 AM

partypooper partypooper is offline

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Location: Western Australia

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Crackone, pity about that fine print, but I reckon you'd be in profit there still. The question is would BEST tote be equally as good?

Last edited by partypooper : 17th February 2008 at 10:50 AM. Reason: omission

17th February 2008, 11:23 AM

Crackone

Member

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 368

Quote:

Originally Posted by partypooper

Crackone, pity about that fine print, but I reckon you'd be in profit there still. The question is would BEST tote be equally as good?

Had a quick look at yesterdays results S/tab seemed to pay the better of the three, not all the time but when you add the 30c it came out in front most times. All you have to do is pick the winners

Plus the 30c is not on all tracks, today only Taree. all other tracks are only 10c better

The best way to go would be open an account (10% bonus up to $400) turn over the required amount withdrew your money and run.

17th February 2008, 02:01 PM

partypooper partypooper is offline

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Join Date: Nov 1999

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 2,432

Crackone, I've been trying to find that bookie, can you send the name down the line to lumbasakabayo att hott male dott comm, ta, do I take that if you bet a horse that wins @ say $2.50 on Supertab that the bookie pays you $2.80c??

I wonder how that compares (over time) to backing at Top Fluc?

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