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  #1  
Old 26th April 2008, 10:56 PM
odericko
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Default lay bank

i operate on 2 banks both small 100 aus 50 uk
im just wondering what fellow layers would suggest as proper sized banks
...trading shares on the stock market 50000 is the suggested starting bank
so would it be safe to assume that 50000 in the betfair account would be a good thing??
probably not ,
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  #2  
Old 26th April 2008, 11:58 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I won't say i know how much is the right amout but if it were me i would work out my avaerage weeks worth of bets and say have 4 times that amount spread through out my selected bookies and betting accounts and then have the rest of the bank in a real bank on short term deposits.

Depending if you are wanting to keep profits from the taxman i am not sure how this will effect that, but the added interest will help build the bank in the future.
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  #3  
Old 27th April 2008, 02:18 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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I think it depends on your personal financial situation and what level of risk or confidence you have or are prepared to endure without detriment should things go pear shaped.
One thing's for sure, you do not need a big bank at all if you have a clear edge.
Compounding will build your bank quick enough.
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  #4  
Old 28th April 2008, 02:46 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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The nice thing about trading ,which is a nice way of saying betting, which is a term stock brokers shun to use, especially to prospective clients, is that one can start with a very small bank & try & build from there.

With shares, the min bet (or Trade) one has to entertain is $1000, that's because the brokerage fee in & out is approx $30+ for each transaction, now this is a lot of money when say day trading, where any number of transactions can take place.

If one is consideriing Lay betting , here is a money management method that works very well, if one can pick the right result at the end of the day.

Lay Bet 1-2% of bank on selections paying $6.00 (5/1) & less
Lay Bet 1-0.5% of bank on selections paying between $6.20 -11.00 (10/1)
Lay Bet 0.25% of bank on selections paying between $11.20 -16.00 (15/1)

I mention the fractional odds because, for those who dont already know, that's ones payout figure, or the other term used, is Liability if unsuccessful
e.g $10 on a 5/1 ($6.00) horse = $50 payout figure (Liability) if unsuccessful.

The figures have to be kept smallish because when those babies bite us, they can bite hard, especially in the upper price range.

I have seen a number of Lay betting plans from the UK charging $100+ for the system of targeting odds on horses to lay.
Usually they target horses priced between $1.00-2.20

If one wishes to entertain lay betting , keep in mind when one places their bet, say $10 at 5/1 (6.00), Betfair take $50 out of your A/C ,when one places the bet & if successful they give back $60 leaving you $10 gross profit , 5% commission is then deducted. In this case .50c leaving you $9.50 net profit.

So try not to go too crazy with multiple bets all at once, without being aware of this.

If one can pick some of these short priced horses to lose, which they do 45% of the time, using a staking plan like the Fibonacci ,veriouse reviewers who test out plans independently, claim that it is the most successful of all the methods of Lay betting, because ones exposure to Liability is minimal, which means one can possible entertain a staking plan of sorts to try & target some leverage.

A word of warning , try to never use a progressional staking plan on laying horses who are priced above $2.20 , one could get fried alive, its not like normal win betting & one usually pays the penalty for this indiscretion.
plus one would need a huge bank of around 6000:1 ratio if one were to contemplating the idea of laying horses say $5.00-11.00 range.
e.g. Say one targeted horses at exactly $6.00 (5/1) this is what a normal betting to price progressional staking plan would look like to win $1.00
$1 -lost $5
$6 -lost $30
$36 - lost $180
$181- lost $905
$906 - lost $4525
Total loss $5645 Ouch! Why is my butt hurting?

So the message is, try & use the percentages as mentioned above for the whole day, one can adjust accordingly the following day.

One conservative approach that can work, is try & stop betting for the day once bank has been increased by 2.5%+ for the day.
Over a week , that's a potential compound growth of approx 19% a week increase on ones bank & over 30 days it compounds out to doubling the bank.

It sounds easy , but there will be hiccups along the way.

Cheers.
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  #5  
Old 29th April 2008, 06:48 PM
JoeF JoeF is offline
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Hey B, could you go a bit further into how the FIBONACCI numbers staking plan works with the lay side of things please.
I understand the method ( add the last 2 numbers together to get your bet ie: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 etc)
I was just wondering how this is put into bet/lay amounts.
Cheers.
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  #6  
Old 29th April 2008, 10:44 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Joe
The Fibonacci staking plan when used for Lay betting should idealy be used on prices that are $2.00 & less to make the thing work to our advantage.

The original idea was to target prices up to $2.20 & no more, so as to keep the race liability low.
e.g. Where we say win means , we win because the horse fell over.
1 1 2 3 5 8 13w at $2.00
O/L 33
Ret No.1= 26
Short -7

Now repeat last bet of 13w at $2.00
Ret No.2 = 26
Plus the other ret 26 = 52
Total O/L 46
Profit +6

We repeat the bet if we are not in profit.
So in this example , we only needed 2 successes out of 8 to show a profit
of +6.
1+1+2+3+5+8+13+13= -46 - Ret 52 = +6

At level stakes betting 1unit, we would have been behind by -4
Betting equivalent O/L over the 8 races at level stakes at
$5.75 per race = -23

We are assuming all the selections were exactly $2.00
In other words 1 for 1
If the prices were slightly less, our outgoings if they come 1st would be less.

e.g. $1.50 horse goes against us . Our payout or liability would be .50c for each $1 bet. (We keep the $1.00)

I feel a bank of 200+ units would be needed if one wishes to entertain the idea.

One way to weed out false odds on horses, is to target the ones that are going up in class.
Class can be confusing to most & understandable so.
One simple way, is to look at the prize money of its last race compared to todays race.
If todays race has more prize money than its last start , then we can confidently say it is going up in class.
That's when we Lay bet it to fall over.

Cheers.
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