Hello all

I was wondering if anyone had found a source of stats on the strike rates of horses from different barrier positions that factors in running style. To explain...

I use Excel calculated ratings to determine my top 4 picks for the race and one of the filters I apply to these top 4 to get my selection is a comparison of running style to barrier position. So a horse with an on pace running style from a very wide barrier may score poorly in my analysis when compared to an on pace horse from an inside barrier etc etc etc. I would be keen to analyse historical data of how horses with different running styles perform from a range of barrier no's (esp in Brisbane) but am not sure where to source the data.

Would RaceCensus for example be able to provide this analysis - happy to invest the $s if there's something out there that'll do the trick...

Cheers

Sparky

Sparky,

RaceCensus has been built for this purpose.

Crash might be able to shed some light on this for you as well, I believe he is a firm believer in barriers and running styles.

As far as RaceCensus is programmed, if you look at past races, the in running positions are given at the settling point, 800m point, 400m point and of course finishing position.
You have the option to export this information to excel to work out barrier and running style strike rates.
I'm sure that track and distance will impact those strike rates as well, as would track condition and probably pace.

I'm certain I could assist with your study if you needed further help in executing the data.

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Thanks CP - you've made my day. Been frustrating for me doing the filtering based on hunches without any "science" to back it all up. I'll let you know how I get on with the database and appreciate the offer of help - happy also to report back the results and compare notes assuming I get that far!

Cheers

Sparky,

Chrome is right, I do pay a lot of attention to running style and barriers but only on a race by race form study approach. It would be a can of worms though to work it all into a handy spreadsheet of stats, though I'm sure some stats could be produced by anyone good at doing that sort of stuff [not me as my brain just isn't wired for it].

Tracks would be a problem. Take Gawler for example: A constant turning track with a short straight. Not good for backmarkers at all, but great for leaders and on-pacers. Ditto for Ipswich with it's short and uphill straight. It goes on and on with some tracks suiting some horse's running style but not others. Throw in race pace, rail position, field size, barrier positions, track conditions on the day etc. etc. on top of all that and there's your can of worms. You'd end up with individual horses that have 20 different ratings for 20 different race scenarios each horse might encounter.

I'm sure though that some main info. could be noted for a spreadsheet. A 'T' in the formline would be a big help with the track [the horse handles it] and so would knowing the running style of a horse [position at turn?], and what pace of race that would suit. Also, what pace is this race going to be [if only one or no leaders it will be slow, so forget backmarkers]? Leaders and on-pacers generally benefit from inside half of the barriers [less work to get up near the lead], while backmarkers like b1,2 or outside barriers so they can get back safely and easily. I'm sure you can work out other main bits of info. to include in a spreadsheet without too much trouble.

Crash


Thanks for your comments. I agree there's a whole range of permutations that complicate matters - what I'm really hoping to do however is try and substantiate some of the theory I use to make my selections regarding which barriers will favour which style of horse. As you note in your post, outside barriers would theoretically suit backmarkers but not on pace horses and vice versa....I'd like to try and test this and see if I can establish success rates of backmarkers versus on pacers from different barrier positions - I only bet Doomben and Eagle Farm so hopefully this'll simplify things....fingers crossed..

Cheers

Sparky