Hi all I've been punting for awhile now, only small stakes so i don't win or loose big. Just a bit of fun.

But I've been getting e-mails from a couple of different people trying to sell me all sorts of systems....

One guy is sending me 1 or 2 emails ever day his name is XXXXXXXXXXX

The systems make all sorts of promises and cost less than $100.00.

Anyone know of a system that really works???

How do you back the fav to place and make a profit???

Thanks,
Mike.

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There are systems contained on this forum for free that are better than most for sale at any price, spend the time and use the search features to find some thing you like.

Backing favs for a place is not realy the way to go, you would need a 75% strike rate at best.

Those systems probably float like a brick and sting like an empty wallet.

Welcome Mike,

Like so many viewers of this wonderful forum, I also have been down the purchased systems road and will simply confirm what most everyone will say. If you're trying to find a system that will pay the bills then I believe you have to find your own edge.

One point that Crash has made is that a system could be "written on the pavement outside Randwick" or something along those lines, and punters still woulndn't follow it because they can't live through the losing runs. Personally I have a different viewpoint and that is most punters who live off their earnings are not using systems with long losing runs. I believe it would make one's income scenario too volatile.

So this leads me to my next point. The market prices are very accurate. Don't be put off by the negative comments of betting on favorites. They are coming from people who haven't found a way to make it work. That doesn't mean that a way is not there. Find a way to spot the dubious favorites and hey presto your in a Roller! It only took me six years............sad really.

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Food for thought...

"Odds on - look on"

Backing all odds on favourites at tote prices you lose 9.99%.
Take top fluctuation and my guess is losing less than 4.99%

Taking Betfair SP is spot on the knocker breakeven and then you pay commission, so you're back to somewhere between -3% and -5%.

What's interesting - highly interesting, is that the most obvious filter increases profit.

Last start winners (odds on) return 7.21% loss
Last start 2nd (odds on) return 10.78% loss
Last start 3rd (odds on) return 18.51% loss
Last start unplaced (odds on) return 11.95% loss

First starters odds on 13.53% loss

You only need to find one additional filter and you can back and lay depending on the rating.

Look for horses that continually get rolled at short prices and lay them, look for horses that continually win at short prices and back them.

You can't go wrong.

As for what you are mentioning, I know of this gentleman, I believe he's been going a while, and there are no good reports about anything he's spruiked.

__________________
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Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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Pure gold in that statement.
In fact a lot of pros bet in and around very short horses.
Of course there are varied approaches and some tangle with volume bets on exotics and longshots, but you'll find the bulk of them operate around the 4/1and under and have "special" bets on the really short commodities.

At least two well known pros, operate on the shortest horses on the card with one or two extra filters and make a killing.
Let's not forget our friend Partypooper who backs shorties for a place, but gets the best price he can on them and adds a couple of his own filters.

All you need is a very small edge.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Too right CP and may I add, just one simple filter will turn them into a winning proposition. While I do not bet on shorties at all, I made a study of them, and there is money to be made, lots of it, by either backing or laying.

Don't suppose you would like to share?
No? didn't think so lol

Mike367, By way of a positive reply, I've tried every known staking plan, and at the end of a period of time added up the total number of stakes, divide by the number of bets , apply that figure as level stakes and the result is the same, as for goodies,........ well let's just say that there are many incentives offered by various bookies (outfits) and you can manipulate it to a certain extent, but it's only icing on the cake, you have to have a winning plan in the first place.

Remember that the casino only has a tiny advantage on the roulette wheel but it's a license to print money in the long run.

Well, I was hoping someone would mention one or two that they had some success with, or some to avoid.

Can we mention the names of systems without being censored?