Well, gotta admit that I've been keeping this one under my belt for a while til I had chance to try it out, BUT as I probably will have about as much success as getting my video recorder to work, I thought I would share with all and sundry!

OK, so how many of you have ever heard of a sytem that shows a profit (Over an extended time) ? my guess is ZERO,

How many have ever heard of a selection method that shows a profit (Over an extended time) my guess is ZERO,


How many have ever heard of backing no 1, 2 3, 4 or whatever that will show a profit over time??? my guess is ZERO,

And now the REAL "crunch" have a look at the JOCKEYS tables, to my knowledge NO-ONE and I mean NO-one jockey has ever turned a profit long term.


In all these cases, the loss is far greater than the Betfair take out, do I need to say anymore??

But my real interest is in the jockeys, I think this is where the profit is in laying!

If we could lay at tote prices and pay commission, this would be a winner.

Unfortunately we have to lay at significantly longer prices and pay commission on top.

Consider a jockey who has three rides for the day and shows a longterm loss.

First ride $3.00 favourite - loses
Second ride $7.00 - loses
Third ride $15.00 - wins.

Problem is to get set on the $15.00 shot we had to lay at $25.00 plus pay commission, that's a aaaa of a lot of free rides he has.

The idea is good though, we need to look at jockeys that have a bad record on favourites

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Wrong party........

seconded

Mark/Stugots, well what I meant was; a "substantial" profit. But let's say then backing all no. 7's surely a definite loser big time?

Chrome, mmmmm, a good point so I gues we need analyse a given jockeys record taking different price ranges and so avoid laying the biggies.

I also reckon the tables showing how the jockeys go is very deceptive. They use bookie starting prices. Now when a jockey wins on a horse at $20.00 with the bookies it can often be $30.00 or $40.00 on the tote. Have a look at how those jockeys do on the longest priced horses in the tables. Any remotely close to square may actually be showing a profit at best tote odds, though the sample is probably not enough considering the number of rides and number of winners.