Hi all,

I love reading all the ideas that get tossed about in this forum. It really gets your racing brain ticking over. But I think I might have said this once before in here, that the only way I can continually win is following sectional times.

Over nearly 3 years I've gradually improved the way I analyse them, with the help of a spreadsheet of course, with my last slight change of thought pattern being in mid december 2008. Since then I have had 216 bets in 172 races for a bet strike rate of 29.17% and a race strike rate of 36.63%. For an overall POT of 26.55%. Average divie being $4.34 (IAS Top Fluc).

I guess thats about an average of around 43 bets a month, basically saturday only, and of course pretty much only on sydney and melbourne as they are the only places sectional times are available for.

I spend about two hours on a sunday or monday going through these whilst watching the replays on tv, enter what I like into my BB and thats it. Along comes friday my BB arrives, I check to see if my horses contained in such have raced within 21 days and make sure they havent gone up in weight 3kgs or more, and then back them. At the same time I clean out my BB with horses that have gone over the 21 day period. If my selection wins or goes close or has excuses they stay, otherwise they are gone. I cant remember the last time I bought a newspaper, all done on the net.

Yesterday was a rather good day as I had only 3 bets and they all won. News Alert $4.60 (got diddled there a bit $6.10 on the nswtab), Driffield Gold $2.10 and Shocking $2.80. Previous saturday 12 bets in 10 races for 5 winners totalling $18.50. My BB should start to take a fresher look as horses head out for spells or head up north.

I've fiddled around with that many different plans and ideas but this is the only way I can make a continued profit.

Regards, Paul

How do you make use of sectionals in slowly run races [that's most races nowadays]?

Yes you are right, most races these days seem to be run to a slow tempo. In my ideal world I would be looking for a horse that races very handy to the lead, in a fast run race and either wins or goes very close. Unfortunately there isnt many real worlds about. So I've just got to make the most of slow tempos. I have a few formulas, one of which tells me the tempo of the race and another which tells me how many lengths each horse either gained/or lost to the winner over the final 600/400/200. The same of course applies to the winner, how many lengths did it put on the rest of the field/or lost over the final 3 furlongs.

By watching the race at the same time, if the winner has held off all challenges pretty well, he's added. I cant just sit around and wait for what I consider a perfect run, as mentioned above, otherwise I would have hardly any horses in my BB. It all comes down to one's personal opinion, and hope that you get it right enought times.

This probably doesnt really answer your question, not an easy one to answer.

Paul

No, it doesn't really answer my question. A good sectional in a slowly run race [more than 2 sec. or 12 length outside the record for that distance on that track] is achievable by any horse and is mostly meaningless in my experience and the winner has had a soft win [what does that say about the horses behind it?]. Next start [if] in a truly run race the sectional mostly won't be there. However, it's just my personal opinion.

I'd also be counting how many times a horse is hit with the whip, especially if it has a senior Jock on board [hits a lot harder than an apprentice]. Can flatten a horse for it's next start. And in a fast run race as you mentioned, I'd certainly be looking out for the backmarkers!
For good sectionals I'd be looking at the replays of truly run races [only] and balancing up times from final turn lucky corner cutters and deceptively slower times from horses stuck out 3 or 4 wide [often faster than the corner cutters] who next race might be getting a better run.

If your stats are correct however, keep doing what your doing!

Good points you have there, although I dont do any comparisons with course records etc. Thought about similar, but dismissed the idea, I just treat each race on its day by its merits. Maybe it was a leader bias track, then I'd view the run of the leader/winner a bit more harsher when I check the times.

With backmarkers which you mentioned, that was my change in thoughts last december, when I used to see a backmarker gain x amount of lengths on the winner from the 600 to run 4th. Back it and it does the same thing again next start. So I made it my new years resolution not to back any more backmarkers. I've now become just a small bit lenient on that rule when I see times like Shocking's.

I dont necessarily have to blackbook a horse from every race, some meetings I might just find 3 or 4. It comes down to viewing a race, using the tools that you have in front of you, and asking yourself the question, was this run good enough for this horse to win next start. There is no system to this, just your own skills and hope you can get it right enough times.

Paul