Heavy Metro Races 1,789

Fav Winners = 535 29.9%
2nd Ranked = 354 19.79%
3rd Ranked = 258 14.33%

Top 3 in betting = 64.0% of all Heavy Track Winners

Top 3 in betting (Good Tracks) = 64.6% of All Good Track Winners
Top 3 in betting (Dead Tracks) = 63.4% of All Good Track Winners

Why throw darts?

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Now, thats a interesting set of numbers.
I'll rethink my "no bets on heavy tracks policy"
Cheers
Mike.

Yeah a while back I tested some different theories and found that a FAST track was actually the "worst" performer and the wet tracks weren't as bad as people seemed to think.

This is just my opinion. The worst heavy tracks are those where the rain has come down a day or two before the meeting. Why? I don't know. I just remember a lot of unfancied longshots win on those days. When there hasn't been a heavy track for quite a while, it can be treacherous. Even good wet trackers don't do so well quite often on those days. But in the middle of winter when there is a lot of slosh about and a lot of slosh form too, its like any other day.

exactamundo

it is amazing tho how many just dont get this

Gotto agree with that. In the slosh, chances of a win are similar to that on a good track. But wait, there is a good reason !!!

As far as the stats go originally put up, well there is stats and stats [decide a position and then find 'stats' to fit].

Everything seems about even going regarding % outcomes between good and heavy tracks. In reality however, they become a little tricky in what they actually show and why the win chances of a pick are about even.

Heavy tracks have as much as 30% less runners on a card than on good tracks, so of course 1st. 2nd and 3rd favorites on a heavy track have a high success score [similar to good tracks] because they have less runners. And in the scheme of things, we should also remember that smaller fields have lower SP prices [not an insignificant point].

Have a look at stats that show equal field sizes for heavy and good tracks and as far as 1st, 2nd. and 3rd fav. go, we see a totally different picture. Of course, this little bit of % significance has been left out of the heralded stats initially presented here.

Look at it this way, if a field of 12 runners has 4 scratchings because of a heavy track, naturally the % of 1st, 2nd. and 3rd favorites getting up in the heavy are going to look good. As good as 1st. 2nd and 3rd. favorites getting up in the good in a field of 12 runners! The fact the % is about even for the field of 8 compared to the field of 12 says a lot! Get what I mean?

Just my 2c worth anyway.

<8 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 89.8%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 89.3%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 89.4%

8-12 runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 73.1%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 74.1%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 75.2%

>12 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 63.9%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 65.5%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 65.7%

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Have to agree with your comments about field sizes as well Crash.

In Melbourne we don't get that many metro tracks that are heavy these days.

Think the greatest danger with wet tracks is when they occur during the middle of a dry patch [summer which has happened] as you're generally faced with a group of horses that have no recent exposure. Form can become guesswork.

Generally I'd say wet tracks don't have to stop you betting, although it depends on your own form factors.

I'd say fitness becomes an added factor to consider. Have to be careful about backing horses first/second up.

Tempo of a race can become an added factor, especially where you have one clear leader in a race, where it can be hard to make ground and run down the leader.

Hi Stix,

Any chance you could expand it out to the fourth favourite. I think you'll find it covers off near enough to 80% of all winners, all track conditions.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

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Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.

Top 4 in betting = 75% of all Heavy Track Winners
Top 4 in betting (Good Tracks) = 75.3% of All Good Track Winners
Top 4 in betting (Dead Tracks) = 74.1% of All Good Track Winners

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!