Had close to two years of good results [and when I say good I mean 115% return].

Bit over a month into the new racing year and I'm batting 75%

Not overly happy but a couple of years back I'd be making all sorts of decisions...changing the system, selectively backing/not backing the picks, changing my stake.

Interesting challenge of sticking to the plan when it isn't working.

Questions of how long do stick with it might be relevant, hopefully I don't have to visit that one.

Hope to bounce the post if/when I can get it back in front !

So you have a 75% pot and you are complaining?

I wish ! A 75% return meaning a 25% loss.

Not 75% POT.

It'sa good question. Without knowing all the information and doing lots of analysis here are some things I would consider:

1) Lock away most of the original profit and keep the system going on small bankroll. This will give you time to observe the trend and protect the bank if it is going pear shaped. If it comes back on track you can re-add your money.

2) Do a month by month statistical analysis. Get the averages and stats for each month. Then look at recent months and see how far (if it all) they are below the worst month. It might turn out you've just had a run of bad months but could expect more big months coming in.

3) Using the data from 2, if you notice a distinct point in time where a change happened do some research on the events at that time. Maybe conditions changed (eg qualifications for a race type got stricter, or handicapping was relaxed in XYZ races) or maybe it was something like weather.

Plenty more things like that you can do. The main thing is do the research and see if you can explain the difference. Even if you have to throw the system away at least get confident in your decision first.

I once was in the same situation with a profitable system that lasted for about 2yrs. I kept betting it and eventually did my profit. Except for idle speculation, I have no real answers as to why systems can and do die and in hindsight it was silly of me to keep flogging a dead horse.

I'd stop betting the system until it shows clear signs of returning to profit [or not]. Keep the profit in your pocket mate.

Hi, Steve M.

With a profit over two years one would expect it to be solid system. However, it might depend on the number of bets? The reason I ask is that a certain publication that periodically sells systems will list the bets which often comes to a few hundred over a period of a couple of years or thereabouts. Then when their system is sold to the public it heads downhill.

Also, their rules are generally "rigid". For example, "placed at last two starts", "won the highest average prizemoney in the race", "last start within 18 days" etc.

I don't know the rules to your system, but if they are 'rigid" then the Shifting Sands Syndrome (Bhagwan, thanks for this term) will most likely eventually happen, just as it does with games of chance such as roulette.

Maybe if you can cross-reference your selections with a "non rigid" source, such as its Starting Price (Maria did this very successfully with a cut off price of $11), Unitab, DFS ratings, neurals, etc.

As evidence, a few years ago I purchased one of the publication's systems which eventually failed (how surprising), but I used a "non rigid" rule by betting those selections that had 100 points on Unitab. This proved profitable with each-way betting (remembering that the system over the same period went downhill). As the system was only for Saturday racing there was not too much action using my extra rule, and eventually I could not be bothered phoning for the selections even though it was showing a good profit.

So, applying a "non rigid" rule or rules to a system that is comprised of "rigid" rules might be the key or increase the possibility of a long term profit.