I've been trying to learn as much as I can about punting on horses for the last few years, this forum being a great source of knowlege and ideas and as I know there are a lot of knowlegeable people on here I'd like to a question.

In your opinion which is a more reliable indicator of the possible future chances of a horse?

The last three beaten lenghts (just as an example) ie the total sum of them

Or

The last three SP figures.

Do you think the total sum of the last three SP figures is a reliable indicator or maybe just last the last one should be taken into consideration as sometimes the horse in question may have had a bad run, bad luck etc so possibly you could excuse it going of at a long price the next run?

Thanks in advance for any replies

Peter

I asked the very same questions to a couple of very experienced Proffessional punters many years ago.
In order of importance were

A/ Placed 1-3 Last start.

B/ Beaten lengths - 1000 - 1600 beaten no more than 2 lengths

1650 - 3200 beaten no more than 3 lengths

C/ 1st 4 bookmakers OPENING prices

Cheers.
darky

I think the pros advise is pretty well spot on Darky, although I wonder about backing horses in races of 2000+ never been good to me?

Thanks for the replies Darkydog & Partypooper much food for thought.
I know there is a bit of difference of opinion between the beaten lenghts and ran 1st,2nd or 3rd school of thought.

So you'd place more importance on what the horse did at it's last start as opposed to it's last two or three?....re lenghts SP etc

Yes Peter.
The late Ian Barnes suggested going to 4th LS but the general consensus was up to 3rd LS.
The stats as per Malcolm K (run over 100,s of thousands of races) indicate that horses which ran 5th or worse LS are more likely to LOSE next start.

I would be hesitant also to bet a horse that was a backmarker as against a horse that was a leader or races on the pace in the majority of their races (1.e 4th to 6th on the home turn)

Also horses up in the weights 55KG + win more races than those down in the weights.

Cheers
darky
ps .The top 2 racing form papers are SPORTSMAN and ( WIZARD online )

I had he pleasure of speaking to Ian Barnes on the phone a few years ago re info on a certain system seller, nice guy and a very helpful gent, (Ian Barnes that is).
I think that in his book Designing Sytems for the 21st Century he mentions 4th last start.

Just wondering if SP last start is a reliable indicator re the horses chance next start ie how much 'weigh' ,if any, would you give this factor when looking at the form?

Thanks Peter

Hi Darkydog,
Just re read your original post and realised you've already answred my question.

Sometimes I'm a bit slow on the uptake

Stick to the old adage Party, in distance races tactics are everything, so the trainer and jock have far more influence than anything else.
Provided the horse is good enough for the distance of course.

Cheers