Here is an easy laying system that anyone can use and make money.

You need to watching sky and have betfair open. Just before the last few horses are loaded (ie as late as you can), compare the lowest price shown for each horse (the lowest tote price being either untiab, nsw tab, or vic tab) and times it by 1.20 (ie add 20%). If any of the horses on betfair are available to be laid at less then this figure you will come out in the long term.

I usually stick to horses under $20

These are my figures for the last 7 days.

1033 lays for 152 winners(or accidents as Michealg calls them) and a profit after commission of 132.87 units.

I use a program to do it for me but it should work for anyone. You could also stop when your in profit for the day.

I don't quite understand the 20% part.

Supposing the prices on the animal were $1.70 , $1.85 , $1.80
Then the lowest Price would be $1.70 - yes?
Times it by 1.2 makes it $2.04 is that right so far?

And now I go and allow others to bet it against me and I give them any Price up to , and including $2.04 , is that it?

To me I think I may have messed it up some how.

Yes that is right. For $1.70 you lay up to $2.04.

You take whatever stake your happy with, ie I lay $5 on each selection that way my max loss for a race is $95 ($20 winner).

wesmip1,

I read on a forum, may even have been here, that someone claimed to have won big by betting horses on Betfair that were under the TAB's prices.

Even though you've tested it with 1033 selections for an excellent result, it's only been for a period of one week. You mention "ïn the long term" - have you tested it prior to the past week? If so, have you recorded the results?

Yes you are right I did test it over a longer time frame. Here are all my results:
This includes the testing period. It stretches back a little over 12 weeks.

Selections : 16594
Winners : 1782
Profit after commission (assumption is 5% commission) : 1535.70

My test period was 10,000 bets since then I have been betting live.

I should stress I have a custom written program that I use so you probably couldn't get all the bets on in the short time frame. The software does everything for me.

Good Luck.

I agree with wesmip.
I've also seen postings regarding anything "unders" is a good bet.
Perception and reality are two different animals.
When you're in the midst of a roll one way or another, it's easy to draw skewed conclusions, but taking a subjective step back often forms a better perspective.

I also automate my lays, which enables me to do other things rather than anxiously ruminate over every transaction, it also allows me to form a broader view of results.

Here is an example:

The last two weeks of June I trebled my bank, everything I laid (it seemed) went in my favour, I did really well.
Confidence was at an all time high, and I really could have gone silly with my staking - luckily I didn't.

The first week of July has been unimaginable.
My lays have just kept winning.
I have lost 50% of the profit of June in just three days.

I guess the moral of the story, is to know your edge, know when your results are better than expected and worse than expected, and simply count on the expected margin.

I expect to come out well ahead for July, but not after some major results against me.

Persistance and patience pay, but are sometimes hard to contend with.

Even during this downturn, I'm actually adding value my way, as my commission rate is falling quite rapidly. So when the tide turns, not ony do I have the odds in my favour, I have better odds in my favour, so the profits will be a little better than normal.

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The $20 rule was what you have worked on.


I added the betsheet from today.

Attached Files

BetHistory.xls (27.5 KB, 759 views)

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Ive opened it up a bit in the last week as my bank has increased as Ive looked at the results and slowly taken it out. My minimum price is now $7 and max is $40. I found all the shorts were just going nowhere and sitting on breakeven or a small loss after commission...

I came to the conclusion that the fav-longshot bias actually worked if you stick to this method and go for the longer priced horses. I still make a good profit in the $7-$20 range, but anythign under $7 is not worth it.

If you check your results you should see a similar pattern.

I just had a look through my account and I had 58 Bets under $20 today for a loss of $72. Yesterday I had 89 selections for a profit of $165.25.

ie these were all in the range $7-$20.

I had a look at my selections for the 7-20 range with 33 selections and showed a $4.37 loss for today so i guess our selections may be a bit different

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One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________