Over the past week the following system has been showing good profits with Win and Place betting.

1) Placed last three starts unbroken by a spell
2) Last start finish better than previous start.
3) Single figure in the pre-post market
4) No Maidens.

We'll see how it goes today, there are quite a few qualifiers.

Flemington
2/9
3/9
6/2

Hawkesbury
1/4
4/5
5/9
7/7
8/1

Albury
3/1

Rocky
5/2

Pinjarra
1/5
7/5

The amount of ideas you come up with, one wonders, do you ever sleep?

Thorns, the gray cells are always ticking over, maybe even when I'm sleeping, but not necessary about the horses.

From today's eleven selections there were three winners for a return of $9.60, and $6.14 for the Place.

However, what intrigued me was Pinjarrra R1 no5. It ran second, paying $1.04 on NSW TAB ($1.50 on Unitab) for the Place yet I was able to get $1.93 on Betfair. This price was more or less constant throughout betting so there was no luck or good timing in obtaining the $1.93.

This got me thinking about the TAB/Betfair comparison but only with skinny prices. Since last Saturday I've looked at all horses that were $2.30 or less in the Telegraph market. There were about 40 of them for about a 92% strike rate. They showed a small profit on the TAB, and even more surprising, Win betting showed an even better profit.

If betting for the Place on the TAB for these "supposedly" hot faves (some paid $1.04, whilst one even paid $2.00) produced a profit, then judging on today's Pinjarra scenario the profit with Betfair since last Saturday should be quite pleasing.

From tomorrow I'll Place-bet on Betfair everything (providing I'm at a computer) whose Tele price is at $2.30 and less. If it proves profitable I'll report in a few days.

I've done some more research on this Place method.

I've randomnly chosen 12 day's racing and checked the results using NSW TAB divvies.

There were 107 selections for 96 placegetters for a total return of $115.36. Ten placegetters paid $1.04.

This is an overall strike rate of 89.7% and a POT of 7.8%.

I'll list today's selections for the method as shown in the opening post.

Flemington
4/2

Dombeen
3/4
4/2

Warren
5/5

Goulburn
1/2

Gold Coast
7/2

Ascot
7/1

Michaelg,

Ran a quick test for you over the last 3 months on WIN betting only.

Now normally I say it shows a loss and not worth continuing but in this case the results were:

301 selections
70 winners
return 307.60 returnd (unitab)
return 351.86(betfair).

Thats a nice rreturn.

A couple of suggestions which you should follow up (just keep track of an make the decision to include these based on your own research)

It made a better profit if the horse ran 1st last start rather then 2nd.
It made most of its profit with 2 and 3 year olds.
A horse which previously won at the course/track makes a profit. Those that didn't made a loss.
Barrier 1,2 and 3 made a large loss.
All the profit came from horses stepping up in distance.


Hope that helps you identify a few areas to keep track of when following the selections.