I remember reading some time ago that if anyone layed every horse in every race at equal amounts they would end up losing.

If that is true, then it follows that backing every horse should win or at least lose a max of 5%.

On another thread on this forum I state that I'm backing between 70 and 80% of the runners in selected races. Over the three days (began betting on Wed) if I had backed every horse in these races regardless of form, price, whatever, I would have shown a profit for every day. In fact, yesterday the profit would have been double what I made with the usual system.

And today is no different. With only one race to go I cannot lose in both the normal and "bet every horse" systems. And again today the profit will be at least double for the "bet every horse" system.

It makes one think...

Can you say what the rules are?

__________________
Cheers.

Unfortunately I cannot release the rules otherwise it could dilute the divvies. And the success of the method may not continue.

Referring to backing every horse in the race, I've found from my system of currently 361 selections over four days that I would be considerably better off if I had omitted the more fancied horses. Its the higher-priced horses that pay much better on Betfair than the TAB. For example, today an outsider paid 50% more on Betfair S.P. than the TAB. Most winners under $10 only generally pay somewhat higher than the TAB divvies. In fact, I've even had some of the fancied winners pay less than the TAB divvy.

Don't know if this is adding or not but I can tell you DEFINITELY over the last year betting best tote on conveyances at LESS THAN 3-1 beat Bet Fair hands down win or place, that is plain hard fact.

You are right, at the higher end of the market BF (SP) comes out better over all, (for the win) only problem is "you have to pick the winners"

michaelg,

I realise your making a profit because over the last few days a few long shots have come in (especially Friday night). Have you checked what the strike rate was for winners in the $1 - $3 range, $3-$5 range, $5 - $10 range, $10+ range and compared it to overall profit you made.

In order for this to work long term you want to make sure the $1-$3 range is showing at least 35% as per long term statistics for this range. You might find that you just got a few days where the $10+ range had a few more winners then normal.

I haven't checked any of the price bands, and you are correct about the outsiders - the method depends on high-priced winners.

The method does not accept small fields, so the fave generally should not be too short.

The selection process is something I've been looking at for some time but never proceeded with it even though it had shown some potential.

With the advent of Betfair S.P. I tried different betting methods but the results were always up and down. Then I remembered the particular selection method and checked with TAB results which more or less mirrored what they had previously been - only a small TAB loss with a good proportion of high-priced winners. In fact it was last Wednesday that I remembered the method with only three qualifying races to go, and this was after a few good-priced winners would have been snared and consequently assuring a daily profit. As it was, even with three races to go I made about $100 profit.

After the four days, and betting $5 which I have been doing only on Betfair, the TAB profit is $46.00 yet the Betfair profit is $659.05.

Of course I am not saying the success will continue and could even lose it all today, but because of the huge Betfair divvies and my checking past results that shows good-priced winners, I think there is a fair possibility that the method will not fare too badly.

And there's a lot of fun betting it.