OK, so I have been hovering around the "nearly made it" crowd for several years now, some of my ideas showing a small profit, others a small loss, so basically overall about break even.

But I really do believe this time I have discovered an "edge" its only small BUT thats all you need. VERY consistent both in real time and retrospect.

My question is (not to gloat as I appreciate that it could change at any minute)

to those that have already discovered an edge, how do I play it? obviously I'm not going to disclose the details publicly, but once b4 i hit on a winning place plan, only to see it disintegrate when I increased the stakes.

this one I have played out in real time with $200 bets (Place only, BUT lots of bets) and it has remained at the acceptable profit margin, what are your thoughts?

PS the same method breaks even for the win after many thousands of bets.

partypooper,

Firstly nice work.

What you want to do before you start upping your bets on this is check it mathematically to confirm you have an edge. Have you done this ?

If not then I am sure you would have kept records as every professional punter does.

Just place here the number of selections, the number of winners and the sum of 1/price. Reading your post it seems your betting place so it would be 1/(place price).

From this I can give you my thoughts on if the system is ready for betting.

The reason most systems go bad when you bet them is yoy probably haven't checked them mathematically over a series of live bets.

If you don't want to post the info here you know my email.

I will say if it makes a profit then that is fine, one thing with place bets is people try to use all ups and such, i agree you get bigger divis but do you miss out on profits each day.

I always say percentage of bank is best, how you work out when you use the percentage of bank is up to you, daily, weekly ,monthly or maybe when the bank has increased by percentage, the only thing i say is don't use it per bet as the swings could turn a winning system in to a losing one.

If you could average 2% profit on the bank each day you could double the bank in just over 1 month.

Wes,..... will be in touch.

Shaun, I take your point about doubling the bank, but I've never thought along those lines, my mind is set on POT........ LONG,LONG term.

I got myself a long way in front using % of bank on one particular idea ( and pulled out whilst still way ahead) this has financed many other ideas both useless and one or two with merit.

The idea that I'm referring to here is showing consistently 2-3% POT with only 1 filter,.... and I'm talking about a very long trial in REAL time.

With 2 more filters, i.e. 8-14 runners only, and LS 1,2,3,4,

this almost doubles to 5-6% POT (betting place only) with more action than anyone wants really!

Not saying you need to aim for this POT is fine i was just saying what it could take to double the bank, a lot of people would say 2% was crap money but fail to see what compounding can do.

partypooper,

Haven't seen an email from you so not sure if you sent one through and I didn't get it.

W4es, seem to have misplaced your ee male addy,

anyway,

those stats stand as of today

Total bets (for the place) 3080
Hits 2200 (71.43%)

Returns: 3170.40

POT 2.94%

Ave. Divi = $1.42c

The thing that strikes me this time is that it is so consistant with all the stats hardly wavering reagrdless of any particular day (or weeks) betting.

All these are REAL TIME BETS @$200 level stakes.

But I have retrospective stats going back a fair way and show almost identical results.

partypooper,

I can't do proper analysis unless you have the stats for all the prices. I can give you a best guess but its not really good as avgs are not good to work with.

I really need the sum of 1/odds to do this properly


But going quickly on the avg odds you are roughly expecting 2169 winners out of your 3080 bets. Your actual winners were 2200 which is only 31 more winners then expected.

The real figures might give a different story though. But on what I am seeing you are currently just in front and tht could be due to luck or an edge. In fact I did this quickly so calcs might be wrong but I calculate a 75% chance the result is due to luck.

Based on this I wold suggest the wait and see more results before betting. There is only a 25% chance this is due to an edge based on the figures you have provided. If you can give more figures I can check those for you.

The more history the less chance will have an effect.

Wes,

Not understanding the maths involved i was wondering if those findings are in any way objective?

I mean i dont dispute the formulas just the suggested outcomes proportioning a percentage to either chance or edge.

From your experience have you seen a 75% chance swing to a strong edge% or vice versa,does it really come down to the more history the more likely a percentage favoring edge?

Well they are as objective as you can get in this analysis. They are based on the odds obtained and odds are subjective. But as far the analysis it is usually a good guide on when to start betting. I only bet systems that have less then half a percent due to luck (and are not backfitted ... ie tested over real bets).

Its all to do with probability and some more advanced topics on it. I beleive using the analysis I do is the correct way to know when to bet a system.

The answer to your last thing is if you do have an edge the more bets you have the lower the % chance plays a role. So you would normally see a system sit at 100% chance to start with and slowly move away to be pure edge. As I said half a percent chance is the right time to start betting. before that you should collect more data.

Hope that helps. If you ever want a system analysed make sure you keep your stats for me (every odd on every horse win or lose).