OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

8th April 2011, 04:21 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,457

Form Factor Ratings

Each day i will post my top 2 runners for selected races, i will keep a running total on level stakes units based on prices from IAS.

Here is an example from today's races.

Code:


Geelong Synthetic		Race	6
5. Royal Dalton		$3.17
4. Hachiman		$3.97
Casino				Race	8
6. Darshan Joh		$2.91
2. Show A Lion Heart	$3.93
Canterbury			Race	5
6. Red Tracer		$4.25
11. Magita		$5.49

9th April 2011, 08:49 AM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,457

Here we go, i list the best class races from each state, these are the best for today all black type races.

Code:



Caulfield		Race	5
2. Elusive King		$3.94
1. Cuban Sunday		$4.66

Caulfield		Race	6
11. Dubleanny		$2.99
4. Lady Lynette		$4.61

Doomben			Race	7
2. Jasminka		$2.72
13. Geblitzt		$5.29

Morphettville Pk	Race	5
9. Triple Asset		$3.42
1. Cash Bound		$4.04

Morphettville Pk	Race	6
2. Giggleswick		$2.74
1. Precious Lorraine	$5.24

Morphettville Pk	Race	7
6. Believe 'n Achieve	$4.18
8. Budriguez		$5.01

Randwick		Race	1
6. Jackpot Queen	$2.60
7. Anise		$3.02

Randwick		Race	2
7. Needs Further	$2.50
5. Circle Of Power	$6.30

Randwick		Race	3
8. Older Than Time	$2.11
14. Anudjawun		$8.35

Randwick		Race	4
13. Lebrechaun		$4.19
5. Bold Glance		$5.21

Randwick		Race	5
7. Black Caviar		$2.17
11. Crystal Lily	$5.97

Randwick		Race	6
4. Do You Think		$4.00
8. Elite Falls		$4.36

Randwick		Race	7
1. Jimmy Choux		$2.15
3. Retrieve		$8.40

Randwick		Race	8
10. Ladys Angel		$3.67
2. Zingaling		$4.89

Randwick		Race	9
5. Raspberries		$2.88
9. Honor Net		$5.41

9th April 2011, 04:44 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,457

Randwick was a swoopers track, a few times i had runners in the lead to be rolled in the straight.

It is fun starting with a loss.

Code:


Caulfield		Race	5
2. Elusive King		$3.94 Scr
1. Cuban Sunday		$4.66 

Caulfield		Race	6
11. Dubleanny		$2.99
4. Lady Lynette		$4.61 

Doomben			Race	7
2. Jasminka		$2.72 5.14
13. Geblitzt		$5.29

Morphettville Pk	Race	5
9. Triple Asset		$3.42
1. Cash Bound		$4.04

Morphettville Pk	Race	6
2. Giggleswick		$2.74
1. Precious Lorraine	$5.24 2.12

Morphettville Pk	Race	7
6. Believe 'n Achieve	$4.18
8. Budriguez		$5.01 3.02

Randwick		Race	1
6. Jackpot Queen	$2.60
7. Anise		$3.02 6.45

Randwick		Race	2
7. Needs Further	$2.50 2.82
5. Circle Of Power	$6.30

Randwick		Race	3
8. Older Than Time	$2.11
14. Anudjawun		$8.35

Randwick		Race	4
13. Lebrechaun		$4.19
5. Bold Glance		$5.21

Randwick		Race	5
7. Black Caviar		$2.17 1.31
11. Crystal Lily	$5.97

Randwick		Race	6
4. Do You Think		$4.00
8. Elite Falls		$4.36

Randwick		Race	7
1. Jimmy Choux		$2.15
3. Retrieve		$8.40

Randwick		Race	8
10. Ladys Angel		$3.67
2. Zingaling		$4.89

Randwick		Race	9
5. Raspberries		$2.88
9. Honor Net		$5.41

Result 6/15
SR 40%
Outlay 29
Return 20.86
Loss -8.14

Last edited by Shaun : 9th April 2011 at 04:49 PM.

9th April 2011, 06:18 PM

Gerry

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Gerry

Posts: 389

40% strike rate?

6 from 29 would return a strike rate of 20.69% when I went to school.

Gerry

9th April 2011, 08:14 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,457

It would be if it was per selection rather than per race.

10th April 2011, 06:24 AM

wesmip1

Member

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 1,601

Shaun,

How are you staing pre race ? Is it is just 1 unit on ech selection ? or is it dutched ?

17th April 2011, 04:06 PM

Gerry

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Gerry

Posts: 389

Strike rate & staking....

Shaun, hope you don't mind me commenting on your thread, but it is meant to be constructive criticism, and I hope you take it that way.

A horse's strike rate is the number of times he wins as against the number of times he races, expressed as a percentage, so if a horse wins 8 times from 24 starts his strike rate is 33.3%.

A punter's strike rate is no different, except that his strike rate is the number of times he wins compared to the number of bets he has. In your case, according to your posts you (would) have had 18 winners from 98 bets for a (gross) return of $89.73 which translates to;

Strike Rate of 18.36%
Average price of winners $4.99

So lets say on 100 bets, your situation would be....

Outlay $100
Return 19 (should be 18, but I'm being generous) x $4.99 = $94.81 for a loss of $5.19 or a little over 5%. (Mind you, most mug punters would be overjoyed if they only lost 5%.)

What you have to do then is either increase your strike rate (per bet!) or get longer priced winners. Easier said than done, but if you continue to delude yourself that your strike rate is twice what it is in reality, you're kidding yourself.

Also, what is your understanding of Kelly Staking? Mine is that if you're not making a profit at level stakes, the Kelly can't help you, but what it does do if you are showing a profit on level stakes is calculate what percentage of your bank you should bet to maximise profits.

Anyone else care to comment?

Gerry

13th April 2011, 05:23 PM

jimbob

Banned

Join Date: Mar 2010

Posts: 232

how is all this going?

14th April 2011, 01:14 PM

Shaun

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,457

I have just been dutching the 2 selections, if there is a big gap on prices i will just split my stake.

Code:


Ballarat		Race	5
4. Prussian Storm	$3.03
7. Kadena Lane		$5.87
Hawkesbury		Race	6
1. Rogano		$4.61
6. Battle Ready		$4.78
Launceston		Race	8
5. Geejayhaitch		$4.23
1. Borugino		$5.12

#10

14th April 2011, 08:14 PM

Job123

Member

Join Date: Apr 2011

Posts: 37

form factors

Can you tell me on what these are worked by a computer programe or what ?

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