I wonder how they are calculated? Obviously it is more than just a computer ratings program as they rate horses having their first start. As an example yesterday, Ballarat R2 # 4 PRIVATELY. Top in the Pre-post and the fixed odds market had it around $1.40 as well.

It appears they have some inside knowledge! Maybe its barrier trials?

At the time they calculate the Pre-Post I would not have through sufficient money would have been invested to make that judgement as in this case we are talking about a maiden in Ballarat!

As we cannot rate those horses, we bypass any race which has a horse having its 1st start; but maybe we are missing something.

Any thoughts? ... Fred

Depends what sort of punter you are.

A form punter would not touch any race that has not had 2 or more starts for the whole field.

A stats punter may have had a go at it because Favs with zero starts have the highest SR of all Favs approx 33%.

Maybe the connections loaded it up because of its impressive track work & the trainers reputation.

Its a race I would stay right away from, anything could & does happen.
Its a type of race where many outsiders have been seen to win.
Just go over some past history on races where some or the horses in the field, have not had 2+ career starts, to see some examples.

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what is the relationship with the strike rate and the fav's odds.
Fav @ $1.10 3 wins 5 races 60%
Fav @ $1.20 18 wins 22 races 81.81%
Fav @ $1.30 92 wins 117 races 78.63%
Fav @ $1.40 171 wins 256 races 66.79%
Fav @ $1.50 247 wins 412 races 59.95%
Fav @ $1.60 376 wins 661 races 56.88%
Fav @ $1.70 433 wins 861 races 50.29%
Fav @ $1.80 596 wins 1143 races 52.14%
Fav @ $1.90 568 wins 1240 races 45.80%
Fav @ $2.00 540 wins 1294 races 41.73%

This is all tracks, races distances etc over 43691 races. That means that if this representative sample 36+% being maidens etc were filtered out of the equation then the above percentages would have to increase. Maybe enough to actually be in profit. Could somebody please check?
Beton

I tracked the 1st 5 favs over the past few weeks and if you choose 1 of those favs and only bet maidens only, a good profit was returned. A staking plan could make that even better.

Mind you, I classed a "maiden" race as any race where at least 1 horse has blank recent starts or a race where a number of horse had only 1 recent start.

As a noob, this could be the wrong definition of a maiden race!

[QUOTE=beton]what is the relationship with the strike rate and the fav's odds.
Fav @ $1.10 3 wins 5 races 60%
Fav @ $1.20 18 wins 22 races 81.81%
Fav @ $1.30 92 wins 117 races 78.63%
Fav @ $1.40 171 wins 256 races 66.79%
Fav @ $1.50 247 wins 412 races 59.95%
Fav @ $1.60 376 wins 661 races 56.88%
Fav @ $1.70 433 wins 861 races 50.29%
Fav @ $1.80 596 wins 1143 races 52.14%
Fav @ $1.90 568 wins 1240 races 45.80%
Fav @ $2.00 540 wins 1294 races 41.73%

Beton, ?sorry ran out of editing time there, just was asking was this SP or Tote