Hi Guys,

I believe the following will be an excellent laying system potentially on a set and forget basis or Betfair SP or flat stakes laying.

1) Horses that ran 2nd last start
2) Resuming from a spell
3) Win % under 20

Can someone see what the overall results are by using a system builder or database?

hi marksto,
I dont think there would be much action with those rules. Not many horses run a 2nd then are sent to the paddock for a spell..
Or have I missed something?

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get in the Q

The form should read as follows

2X

I believe the focus should lead to lower prices with a high risk of losing and an overall profit on turnover. This is the theory and from observations.

Tomorrows selections would be. I would also advise to limit the price to say under $8 or $10.

Cant R2 - 9
3 - 4
5 - 6

Ascot R4 - 8
8 - 12

It should work just fine.


Here's another Lay Plan to have a go at , it has been performing very well .

RULES
.Target TAB No.1

.Lay price to be approx $3.50-4.50

Lay Bet 1.5% of bank , level stakes.


Profit objective 1.75% a day then STOP for the day.
This equates to approx 50% a month.

It works a treat.

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Cheers.

I checked this back 6 months in Neale Yardley's Bet Selector program and got these figures
races 477
bets 522
longest lay collect run 32
average payout odds using NSW tab odds 3.73
showing -50.6% when win backed on NSW tab.

would need to be checked using actual Betfair lay odds of course
but looks very good.
I presume this is a win lay method not a place lay method?

Hi Ralridge,

Are these stats for my system below of Bhagwans??

The selections I mentioned below all lost and at favourite and near favourite odds. I wish I had insight into a database of results as I believe this will be highly profitable.

Cheers,
Mark

That -50.6% LOT TAB prices, is the type of figure we like to see.

Betfair usually pays 20% more ,therefore, the Betfair result would have been

approx -30% LOT which is a profit to us, when lay betting.

Thanks for testing that.

Well done.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Mark,

The test I did was on your lay method not Bhagwan's.

Hi Mark,
I passed your lay system rules to a person who has a Betfair database going back 11 months and here are his comments,

There were 710 selections for 99 winners returning 530.83 The profit here is approximately 144 units.
This had no odds restriction. It was in profit 9 of 11 months tested. The months when it was down it hit long shots.
Restricting this to maximum $20 lay price reduced it to 513 selections for 97 winners and a profit of 26.

I don't see this being a system I would bet. Most of the profit comes from the longer then $20 priced horses. Based on this 1 or 2 winners in this price range could easily wipe out this profit and even make it show a loss.
Those under $20 are not up by much either. 2 winners above $10 and you have wiped out the majority of your profit.

As you can see he has proved that your lay system did perform over the 11 months testing using actual lay odds and after deducting the Betfair commission.

Hi Raldridge,

Really appreciate your investigations and efforts. Thank you. I was pretty sure that there would be some form of edge in this simple method. I am thinking of betting these to Betfair SP in order to place a limit on the prices and set and forget basis to see how it goes in real time.

From my recent experience betting to win a set amount and then stopping for the day has been one of the best pieces of advise whether win or lay betting.

Any thoughts on refining or improving this would be great.

Cheers and thanks,
Mark