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  #1  
Old 30th April 2011, 03:40 PM
beton beton is offline
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Default unders and overs

I am looking at the first 5 favorites. If you are betting all races each favorite in its own bank on the tote would lose. Betting the tote is always counter productive. If the favorite's tote price was $2, it would actually need $2.10 to break even. Strike rate 40.42%. If the favorite's tote price was $2.50 (34.42%) it would need $2.47 to break even. If the favorite was $3 (28.72%) then It would need $2.96 to break even. If the fav was $3.50 (24.71%) then it would need to have $3.44 to break even. At $4 (21.08%) you need $4.04 to break even. This is using my database of 43691 races.

I dug a little further $2.20 needs $2.27 and $2.30 Needs $2.25

If you could follow the tote and place on betfair at even 10% better you would have to be up long term.
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Old 30th April 2011, 06:25 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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true benton, the problem is that the narrow end of the bf market these days rarely provides the value you are looking for
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Old 30th April 2011, 06:38 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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That is where the patience comes into & also in running can produce the extra edge at times .

.
I have a pensioner **** accountant client of mine who place his win bets on Betfair at 25% greater than the TAB Fav.
He often puts it in running to get his price.

He says he makes good percentages each month that are much higher than his Superannuation & keeps his brain stimulated.
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  #4  
Old 30th April 2011, 06:47 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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Bhagwan love to see in running betting on Aussie racing but guess thats a while away
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Old 30th April 2011, 07:17 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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They HAVE in running on Aussie races but the liquidity is not very good. When you think about it though it does make sense if you are backing a particular horse (as long the price goes UP to the amount you want - as the price can come down instead in running and you would then miss out on placing a bet).
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  #6  
Old 30th April 2011, 07:40 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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Post in running?

still very limited tho?

Last edited by stugots : 30th April 2011 at 07:43 PM.
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