GEELONG Race 7

I figure a sure sign of knowing a Field of animals, is shown by being able to easily place the animals in Market Order.
And this should be able to be done without a lot if study.
You either have a fair idea, or you don't.
And in this Race, my early thoughts suggest I don't.

1 PUZZLE 'EM GIRL $4.4
4 EGYPTIAN BOY $6.7
2 MIDNIGHT THEORY $6.8
3 DAZZLE DOT $8.3
8 OUR RHINO MAN $9.3
5 COOL COLD $11.3
6 REMA'S ONYX $11.4
7 OCKY'S BOY $14

And it turns out the Race is very very Open, so I guess it is a Race for me to skip.
But The Market in The Watchdog suggests I should be boxing the top 3 selections in a Quinella.
I'll see what rolls up at Race Time.

SANDOWN Race 5

6 MARIO CHIEF $3.5
2 TAKE ME HOME $4.3
1 TOTAL REBELLION $5.2
5 LIESEL $8
3 LOADED MISSILE $15
7 UNO BRINNEY $20
4 ULTRA SPIN $25
8 EXHILARATION $66

This Race appears to have 3 Winning Chances.
But none of them will be Overlays so hopefully I will stay out.

SANDOWN Race 7

6 NEW YEAR'S PUNCH $3.5
1 ONYA SPLASH $6
2 LONG GULLY ARCH $6
3 ON THIS DAY $10
8 CRUISE AWAY LASS $11
5 MISS VIXEN $12
7 COOL CHECKOUT $14
4 MAGIC GEORGE $33

Nothing to see here - Again!!

SANDOWN Race 8

1 DAINTREE ROCKET $2.3
3 DREWSTER $5.9
7 BOUNCER NORRIS $9.3
4 COOL LENNY $11
8 GOLD RUSH MAX $12
9 CROWIE LOMAR $20
2 NORTH END $25
6 FAWN MAGIC $33

Yes we all know the top selection will win, but thats not how we make Profits.
For small Punters like me, its about finding animals that only I know will win.
But they are few and far between, and by the time they do arrive, I've lost half my Bank and more than half my nerves.

Have you found anything for tonight at SALE?

I'll be doing Races 5 and 10 only.

SALE Race 5

2 OMEGA CRUISE $4.1
3 OUR BUDDY $4.6
6 ANDO'S OCTANE $5.7
5 CREWSAN JAY JAY $8
4 ONE PUTT PAT $12
8 BRIAN BORU $16
1 PHOTON FURY $18
7 MIGHTY GRUMPY $22

There appears to be only 2 Winning Chances here.
Looking at My Market, you would wonder how I came up with that conclusion.
I sure as flamin' well am

If I can get the Odds, I'll be backing Our Buddy to win this.

Hi moeee,

I'm not betting every day, had some time out with the missus and mates.

Coming back to your pricing, I noticed that you often use the phrase "if it's an overlay?"

Overlay in what sense and according to who's prices?

You see what we all do is rank the runners in order according to our ideas of what we consider important, and allocate certain points to them and we may convert those chances to prices or leave them with points.

But those prices have very little if anything to do with reality, they are simply an indication of the perceived chances of the animals in the race according to you or I and the way you convert points to prices.

So if I price dog A as $3.00 and you as $4.00, then when is it an overlay?
Getting my drift?

How you work out if a dog is an overlay or not is solely dependent on your S/R and average prices you get on your first second or third etc. selections! Nothing else.

I'm not going to harp on about the importance of keeping records, but at least you must know your S/R!

So let's say you have a S/R of 30% on your first selection, then, if don't know your average dividends the minimum theoretical price you have to get is about $3.5 to make a profit.

But you must be getting much higher returns on some dogs, so you can lower your minimum acceptable price to as low as $2.6 on a 30% S/R.
But it all depends on your average prices, if you get much higher prices on some dogs then you can go lower on some others.

Now any animal as your first selection over that price is an "overlay" for you!

Someone else might have a 40% S/R so he could go as low as $2.3 as his minimum price, providing of course that most of your first selections come in at a variety of prices, if most of them come in at less then the theoretical $3.5 thus lowering your average prices below the minimum then you will lose no matter what, sure, you get the winners but lose money.

I hope you understand where I'm coming from, re. overlay?
An overlay for you is not the same as for me or someone else.

Since you use the same rating method it should be easy to find your S/R and ave. prices.

You can go back and look at your posts for the last few weeks and quickly work out your strike rate and average prices obtained and Bob's your uncle.

Good luck