Seriously trying to put a plan together here ………

1) For whatever reason the PP prices have to be seriously taken into account, especially when horses start shorter than their PP price.

2) Fitness is paramount ….. How you can tell how fit a horse is in it’s first up run and second run from a spell is beyond me ….. if anyone can help here I’d be grateful. But 3rd up and on, one can have a look at whether the horse is continuing to go up in distance which may indicate the trainer thinks the best is yet to come ….. one can look at it’s last start which is an important indicator.

3) Average prizemoney seems to be another good indicator.

4) Strike Rate as a percentage of the horses starts (NOT compared to the rest of the field), whether it’s Win or Place, is I believe a very, very good indicator. If this is the base of your system, then you can leave out things like track condition, distance, days between runs, course, etc, etc, etc ….. because you are backing the horse on the premise that the trainer has got it right in the past ….. some filters though could include a minimum number of wins required, how many of it’s wins were as a 2 y/o or early 3 y/o (might have had the guts raced out of it) or dismissing those wins altogether, age, sex, number of starts, average prizemoney, where the horse is trained and usually races (NZ, interstate??).

5) Horses backing up quickly if they won or ran well last start is a good indicator.

6) Somehow get the best price available ….. you’ll struggle to win on the tote.

7) Minimum price, say $ 4.00 ?????

8) Stick with your plan and accept you are going to have a decent run of outs. Manage your money and keep records.



What I would disregard …………… (not necessarily eliminate)

1) ‘c’ and ‘d’ coz it reduces the odds

2) A horse who ran really well in better class last start. Odds too short and you may have missed the boat ….. why would the trainer drop it back in class?

3) Barrier considerations

4) Weight considerations ….. how can a kilo or two be of any measurable significance? Most of the winners come from the top weighted horses.

5) Days between runs ….. it’s another fallacy

Barny
After the handcapper has done his work, he is of the belief that every horse in the race has an equal chance of winning. Joe Public thinks the handicapper is wrong in this summize and Joe Public is correct.
The more money that is placed on a horse the higher the strike rate. This flows from a 82% strike rate at $1.20 to less than 30% at $4 + and less than 25% at $5. This is the greatest variable in the strike rate. The only other significant factor is field size. Less than 9 runners the favs strike rate increases. The more runners over 12 = a falling strike rate.

The only profitable way to win is not to find a winner but to find the winners with value. Beton

One could just rely on the Don Scott asessed price and bet those that are better than their asessed price (A profitable way to go).
After all they,ve done the work for us.

Barny .I like your style and comes back to PROFILING each horse in the top 6 (the best way to learn horse handicapping)
Horses and trainers are creatures of habit.What they,ve done previously is likely to be repeated.

Beton is correct .The only way to win is to get better than your asessed price
whether that be betting 1 horse or many.
I,m not generally in favor of 1 horse betting myself as there is always a danger or 3.

The other thing with relying on someone elses asessment and pricing is to make sure that the track conditions as rated for are the same as todays track conditions.

Cheers
darky

Beton, I remember you or someone else posting the full stats for PP favs winning at each price range but can't find it.

Can you repost it here for us.

Thanks

[QUOTE=darkydog2002]Horses and trainers are creatures of habit.What they,ve done previously is likely to be repeated.

I agree, albeit without stats to beck me up. shall we put it to the test?

Tomorrow at Money Valley - Philda won this race last year ..... and the head north to have a crack at Tinsletown who ran second in this race last year. I might call this my Gazpacho Soup system .....

At least with a horse who is racing in the same race today as it did last year, then you could be confident that:

1) The trainer has set it for this race, or at the very least gives it a really good chance in the race. It's not all that often that you can be certain of the trainer's motives is it. This is half the battle?!

2) Although the horse may not show up as having those famous 'c' or 'd' next to it's name, you know it is suited to this race. The trainer has said as much simply by entering said mule.

3) It's previous run in this same race the year before doesn't have to have been a win, or even a top run. The fact that it's enetered again suggests the horse is a chance.

4) The camp will have learned by any mistakes it made last year, and the horse may be in better 'nic' for this year's event.

It seems your theory is correct Barny.
A close 2nd with Philda.

Smething to refine and develop eh.
Cheers
darky