A very basic question, but one which is leaving me a little perplexed!

Example:
Betting Betfair SP min $30.
100 races laying 5 selections per race
Profit $100.

a) Do I say ROI is: 100 x $30 = $3,000. Percent return = 100/3000 = 3.33% (ie use the number of races)

or

b) Do i say POT is: 500 x $30 = $15,000. Percent return = 100/15000 = 0.67% (ie number of bets).

I have started laying Oz races for August and I am showing 2.46% return using calculation method (a) above and I am trying to find a measure to see if this is satisfactory. If I should be using calculation method (b) above then what I am doing is hopeless!

Many thanks ... Fred

Thats a good question .

If you where win betting you would entertain method B.
Because thats the amount at risk, so when laying it would be similar because thats the amount Betfair take out of our account.
So technically I guess method B is the true indicator,

But to keep things simple, I use method A

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Cheers.

Just do it the way you would for win betting, What ever you payout is your outlay and what ever you win is your return.

For example

If i lay 100 runners @$100 = $10,000 this is my return.
If i paid out in liabilities $8,000 this is my payout.
Results $10,000-$8,000 = Profit $2,000
POT $8,000/$2,000 = 25%

Its all about risk and return.

Profit is the return for risk.

If you make a back bet of $30 on a horse, the most you can lose is $30. Do that for 100 races and you have outlayed (risked) $3000. If your payout is $3100, then your $100 in front. Therefore your profit as a percentage of the amount of money you have risked is $100/$3000 x 100 = 3.33%.

Now i know this is pretty simple stuff, and I'm sure I'm not telling you anything you dont know, but working out profits on lay betting is exactly the same. Your profit calculated as a percentage of the amount you have risked.

If you lay 5 horses in the one race, each to a liability of $30, only one of them can win, so the most you are risking in any one race is $30. So if you end up $100 in front after 100 races, then the calculations are exactly the same as above - 3.33%

the only difference is with back betting, your putting your $30 on up front, whereas with lay betting, you only put your $30 up if one of your selections wins.

Your real liability is not $30 if laying the field.

Of course the maximum you can lose is set at $30, but in reality every other horse in the field is a winner except for the loser.
So you're never going to actually lose $30 in one race.

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Add up your turnover (or hold) for each race.
Then profit divided by hold x %.

If I worked mine out by the method of how much I risk then every year I'd be on infite %, which of course is incorrect.

If you're making 2.46% after calculating this way start jumping up and down and cheering.

eg
your lays

30/12
30/8
30/6
30/6
30/3
Hold =35, say 30/3 wins, profit = 2 = 5.71%

Yes, you're right there Chrome. You're mind was obviously clearer than mine at that time of night.

Mark, so you base your POT on your hold and not your liabilities

I qualify for the premium charge other than the fact that I'm already paying close to 50% in commission now! Anybody here actually paying the charge or been threatened with it?




3.06% after Betfair tax.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Pixie, email me punt mark at hotmail dot com