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#1
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Over the past few days I recorded the results of a system that selects half the field for races that meet certain criteria.
I used NSW TAB divvies betting at level stakes and the loss was just under 10%. I've now decided to look at S.P. divvies also with level stakes. The results of this show a healthy profit. So I'll to list today's selection and see how they go. Albury 4/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 5/ 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9 7/ 3, 4, 5, 8, 11, 16 Coffs 4/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10 5/ 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 13 6/ 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 11, 14 7/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 12, 16 8/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 W'bool 4/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 7/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 11 A total of 63 selections. |
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#2
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WHOA. Good luck with that many selections ![]() |
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#3
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From yesterday's 10 races there were 9 winners. The method suffered a loss of $26.55 betting level stakes of $5.
The LOT was 8% but with the TAB it was 17%. However, if the selections had been dutch-bet then there would have been a profit of 13%. The method has had a success rate of about 82% and would have won every day of testing if the selections had been-dutch bet. Yesterday would have been the worst day even though it would have been profitable. Overall, dutch-betting is showing almost a 30% POT. But to bet this way one has to be at a computer which I'm not prepared to do. However if today shows a better result at dutch-betting than level stakes then I might have to consider it. Today's qualifying races are: Townsville 4/ 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 12 6/ 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 13 Kyneton 7/ 2, 3, 4, 7, 10, 12 Queanbeyan 5/ 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10 6/ 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 8/ 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 |
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#4
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A betfair API product could handle the dutch betting side of thing easily
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#5
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Hi Michaelg,
Have you considered only Dutching the qualifying horses that open (use Betchoice) <$10? From yesterday's results this would have eliminated 20 horses without losing any winners. You have not indicated what prices you are Dutching but this should improve your return with or without Dutching. |
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#6
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Try, I'm Dutching all the selections according to Betfair's prices as shown on their Exchange just prior to the jump.
My target return is $100, and if the outlay is $80 or more then it's a no-bet race. This has only ever happened once with all the many races because one or two fancied horses are often not selected, and as the minimum number of runners per race is 11 this is a strong possibility. I'm surprised how many selections blow in the betting and often if they win, the return is pleasantly high. |
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