Silly, and I'm sure its very simple question for those maths savvy members....

How do I work out the chances of say hitting 5 winners in a row given X% strike rate?

Also what would be the likely longest run of outs...?

e.g. for :
* 50% Strike Rate
* 35% S/R

Thanks very much in advance.

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Easy to do:

for 50% it

1*0.50 = 50%
1*0.50*0.50 = 25%
1*0.50*0.50*0.50=12.5%
1*0.50*0.50*0.50*0.50=6.25%
1*0.50*0.50*0.50*0.50*0.50=3.125%

Hope that explains it.

The longest run of outs is a bit different. It depends on what your definition of "likely" is. Is it 5% of the time, 1% of the time ?

Chance of outs is the similar. To determine the chance of 6 outs in a row at a 30% strike rate it is :


1*0.70 = 70% of 1 out
1*0.70*0.70= 49% chance of hitting 2 outs
1*0.70*0.70*0.70= 34.30% chance of hitting 3 outs
1*0.70*0.70*0.70*0.70= 24.01% chance of hitting 4 outs
1*0.70*0.70*0.70*0.70*0.70= 16.807% chance of hitting 5 outs
1*0.70*0.70*0.70*0.70*0.70*0.70= 11.7649% chance of hitting 6 outs

Stix
I recently pulled a breakdown off of the betbotpro forum. I can't find it now. It had the instances of single wins double wins treble wins etc for the fav. 5 wins were a very rare animal. even 4 wins were rare. double wins were regular and triple wins were serendipity. I would not put any faith in scoring multiple wins. In this there was note that some run of outs were 22. otherwise there are several threads that have given runs of outs on this forum. runs of ins are the inverse of these. Beton

Thanks guys, had a mate ask me the question, so passed info on to him. I'm flat out getting one in a row !

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Theoretically , the longest run of outs to expect with 50% SR is 10 in a row.

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Cheers.