Here’s the bare bones of something that YOU could turn into a decent system.



There’s no way I’m going to give the Win% I use, and other limits, because punters could lose, I’ll get hammered here, and it’s of no use as you’ll see.

1) Use a high Win rate % as your base

2) Get rid of the over raced 2 y/o and early 3 y/o that have had their wins. There are plenty of examples where horses have a couple of campaigns early and win quite a few races 5, 6 or 7 then do virtually nothing for the rest of their career. You’ll get rid of a lot of losers here, and you’ll also find that these types are really short too.

3) Set a minimum number of wins. For example, no point having say 40% Win S/R and applying it to a nag that’s had three starts.

4) Set a minimum number of starts and a maximum number of starts so that you get a horse that’s got some decent history behind it, but not one that hasn’t any more improvement left in it.

5) With regards to the minimum number of starts, you can adjust downwards for geldings.

6) Do not back the horse if it has lost a number of races in a row, this campaign, more than you would think it should in relation to the Win S/R you’ve set. This rule does not apply to nags in their next campaign.

7) Don’t back mares or fillies backing up too quickly. Even tho’ my system’s logic is based on finding a decent horse and trusting the combo of horse / trainer, there seems to be just some rules that are worth following. Thanks Chrome Prince, this is a beaut.

8) Horse must have won at listed level / country cup etc, or above for obvious reasons.

9) You may wish to apply a price filter.


This selection method comes up with some decent priced horses, especially those coming from interstate where their form is undervalued.

Unusual, but there's 3 possible qualifiers in R6 Caulfield tomorrow depending on the Win% you might want to use, and a couple of other factors listed in my post as relevant. In some of the better races during the Spring Carnival you can have multiple selections, and you can also surprisingly have a single selection far more times than one would think.

The beauty of this method is that when you settle on a Win%, and look at the test results, you'll be disappointed at the outcome ..... which means that you need to appply handicapping principles to eliminate some losers AND if you are of that ilk, ironically, you wouldn't be following a pre-determined Win% rate as a selection method. You'd be more likely to follow Top Win% in each race. My system is a sort of 'stable' if you like, with a rule or 2 to narrow down / eliminate selections.

One rule I did forget folks, and it's an important one too.

Assuming a horse has qualified with regards to Win% S/R (first port of call) we don't back it first up if it's obvious to all and sundry that it's now classified as a distance horse and will probably be set for a couple of reasonable distance events. Plenty of winners are found when following a horse (provided the Win qualifies) from say 1400m to 1600m to 2500m for example in it's current campaign, BUT, the in the next campaign it is prudent to avoid it because the trainer may have set it for a slow build up to a decent distance race.

An example of an eliminator tomorrow might Moudre, depending on the Win% you've set ......

Sounds complex, but it's not.

So back-fit to your hearts content & she'll be sweet... I think I get it

norisk, EXACTLY the opposite my friend.

This could been seen as handicapping which cannot be put into the same basket as backfitted systems.

This could be seen as developing a 'stable' to follow which cannot be put into the same basket as backfitted systems.

Next time may I politely suggest your try to understand the message before you type such absolute nonsense. No wonder people get put off here !!!

You have been TOUd for this post. Profanity is not permitted here. Thank you. Moderator.

Lol, that rich coming from the likes of a poster such as yourself.

The overwhelming response to your 'ideas' should give you an idea to how well this tread is travelling...

Here,s one,
Locked in a bank vault for 44 years and now reluctantly released once again for a 1 year short period.
Its no good backdating this one .Its strength lies in forward testing.

Exactly 9 Runners

Won last 3 in current campaign.

May the punt be with you.

darky

GET IT OFF THE SITE !!!!

Can't have the unwashed joining the elite .....

44 years eh ?