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  #1  
Old 4th March 2012, 10:20 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink Interesting Neurals?

If one had over the past two days bet this system:

1) Minimum of 8 starters,
2) Neural default settings,
3) Minimum of 3 horses under double figures in the resulting neural market,

then the results using Unitab divvies are:

Friday
Outlay of $21
Return of $45.10

Saturday
Outlay of $91
Return of $128.20


There were 36 races and the winner was struck in 24 of them for a strike rate of 66%.

Overall.
Total outlay of $112.00
Total return of $173.30

Last edited by michaelg : 4th March 2012 at 10:24 AM.
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  #2  
Old 4th March 2012, 10:54 AM
jose jose is offline
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Question

"3) Minimum of 3 horses under double figures in the resulting neural market,"


Maximum???? perhaps MG.
But it looks like something I work on in a slightly different way.
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  #3  
Old 4th March 2012, 11:11 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Thanks, Jose - it should have read "maximum of 3 horses".

I've been doing something similar with a minimum of 4 selections also with the neural default market, but laying the field.

Last edited by michaelg : 4th March 2012 at 11:13 AM.
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  #4  
Old 4th March 2012, 04:01 PM
jose jose is offline
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Thumbs up

Same here basically, but I am using them for GB races oddly enough.
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  #5  
Old 4th March 2012, 06:33 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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With three races to go, the Lay the Field method cannot lose.

Jose, you've piqued my interest about applying the method to the U.K. - do the neurals load their scratchings, and if so, when? And I presume you're successful?

The Win method described in the initial listing of this thread had a losing day. The outlay was $44, and the return was $40.20. However the Betfair S.P (return was $51.58. In reality the return would have been even more because I deducted 5% of the winning dividend instead of the gross profit.

From the 15 qualifying races the winner was struck in 10 of them for a 66% strike rate.

Last edited by michaelg : 4th March 2012 at 06:36 PM.
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  #6  
Old 4th March 2012, 07:03 PM
jose jose is offline
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I actually use the DS market, (don't trust those neurals enough for real $$$) but it is similar.
If there is 5 horses <=$12 in the DS market, I lay the field, but it has become a bit erratic of late.
Today:
9 races (1 to run) for 1 favourite winning. That race was Devonport R1, where incidentally there were 6 favs winning from the 8 races.
Seems to work for the UK races so far. Touch wood.
Cheers.
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  #7  
Old 4th March 2012, 08:27 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
If one had over the past two days bet this system:

1) Minimum of 8 starters,
2) Neural default settings,
3) Minimum of 3 horses under double figures in the resulting neural market,

then the results using Unitab divvies are:

Friday
Outlay of $21
Return of $45.10

Saturday
Outlay of $91
Return of $128.20


There were 36 races and the winner was struck in 24 of them for a strike rate of 66%.

Overall.
Total outlay of $112.00
Total return of $173.30

Hi michaelg. You've piqued my interest in that this could be something I could load onto a bot before work each morning.

Just a few of questions.
1. What are the default settings literally? I've mucked around with them and can't figure out how to get it back. I press default and nothing happens (maybe they are the default settings ops: )
2. What are your figures based on - $1 outlay per selection?
3. Could it/would it work better if the outlay was placed on winning the same amount for all runners? Say betting to win $5 whatever price the runner is.
4. The 66% strike rate that has come up the last few days is the race strike rate I take it. Obviously betting on 44 horses with 10 winning is not 66%.
5. Have you checked this out with more data than just the last 3 days?

Sorry for all the questions but I might as well get it right if I'm going to give it a go.
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  #8  
Old 5th March 2012, 05:10 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Most likely a blonde question from me, but which horses are you backing? The ones in single figures?
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  #9  
Old 5th March 2012, 05:25 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Minimum of 3 horses under double figures in the resulting neural market,

it should have read "maximum of 3 horses".

Hi Michael
Is that the Neural Accessed Price market or live BF Market.

Cheers.
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  #10  
Old 5th March 2012, 06:42 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi.

The Default settings are all neural categories put on a setting of 3 except WT which is on zero.

The results are based on a level $1 bet on every selection to Win regardless of price, so that there is a maximum of $3 bet on every race.

The single-figured selections are those shown under $10 in the Neural Assessed Price. If there are more than three selections in a race then it does not qualify for the method. Hopefully the neurals are saying that its not an "open" race but with one of few chances.

I think the strike rate isn't too bad because it probably is superior to betting the top three faves per race.

Unfortunately this is from data over the past three days (41 races), and of course upcoming results could drastically change for the worse.

The Ocho, yesterday morning the scratchings at a particular time had not been loaded on to the neurals, so I manually did so after identifying them from the TAB. I then recorded the selections. However when R&S themselves loaded the scratchings to the neurals I noticed there was a discrepancy with the selections and qualifying races - so a word of caution if you manually load the scratchings.

Hopefully I can list here today's selections but I'll have to wait for the scratchings to be recorded by R&S.

Last edited by michaelg : 5th March 2012 at 06:46 AM.
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