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#1
25th March 2012, 07:05 AM
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Lay value vs Market Percentage
Not sure how this will format but here goes:
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This is a prime example how an 84% market can still favour a layer. The two favourites were a total of 84% less than the tote price! If one is laying to payout the same figure on all horses in the market, one loses a massive 16% of the total outlay. If one lays to liability, the greatest liability is on the first then second favourites, the rest should be winners. Given that they are 84% less than tote price, you cannot help but win. As I lay only part of the field, which means I am laying the favourites and backing the longshots (effectively), I got 103% better than the tote price on the winner plus 84% less than the tote on the losers. This is not a one off.... Code:
But there is still huge value both ways.
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#2
25th March 2012, 09:52 AM
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Chrome,
Where do you get tote Figures ? also here were my prices for non-sp fixed odds on betfair: TotalMarketPercentageBet=0.63 TotalMarketPercentageLay=1.11 1. ACTION DASHER = 29.0 / 7.8 2. COUNTRY KISSIN CHICK = 32.0 / 9.2 3. RIATA SPECIAL = 46.0 / 19.5 4. KL WAGON MASTER = 3.8 / 3.6 5. TWISTER IN THREE D = 46.0 / 20.0 6. THATSA FIRE CHICK = 85.0 / 21.0 7. CHAMPIONS LEAGUE = 38.0 / 11.5 8. RUN DJ RUN = 48.0 / 16.0 9. KOOL KUE COUNTRY = 5.4 / 4.5 10. FULL BATTLE RATTLE = 80.0 / 13.0 Looks like SP Figures end up somewhere in between the 1.11 and 0.63 How do you know how much to lay each runner for liability wioth SP as it can fluctuate ?
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#3
25th March 2012, 01:37 PM
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UB,
I use the same liability for each runner, so an unbalanced book. The Betfair Timeform website gives you the BFSP vs Tote %. I was laying the whole field, but a number of things have made me change my approach to lay only a third to half the field.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#4
28th March 2012, 06:11 AM
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CP can you expand on those thoughts please, as I was actually thinking of going down the same track.
My reasons were that the lays above a certain price were wayyyyyy over priced, and I am thinking it is BF themselves pushing them that way. Any more input/confirmation from you would be much appreciated. Cheers.
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Jose'.
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#5
28th March 2012, 01:39 PM
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Jose,
That's my point. I'm not sure why or who, but this has been going on for some months now. I'm pretty certain it's Betfair themselves skimming but can't prove it. It's happening in obscure markets as well and a Betfair user has also alerted to this. When you push the entire market percentage one way or another, certain prices become undervalued and outsiders become way way overvalued.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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