Hi Bhagwan,

Firstly can I say thanks to you sir for your invaluable contributions here over the years and also your endeavours to remain level headed amongst the 'noise', from time to time.

It is also my intention to add some learnings here of my own in good time, but I am not expecting to catch up to you any time soon!

My question regards SR as follows...

Assuming that 1st and 2nd favorites come in approx 50% of the time in any one race over the longer term, how to calculate the effective SR if I target the first 2 favorites and find a system that consistently eliminates the 'false' favorite of the 2 (Say 67-75% of the time)?

Would I be left with a SR that lies somewhere between 40-50%?

LG

Ya little Ripper your Lordship.
A thinking Punter.
Welcome to the Club.
Cheers
darky

Ya little Ripper your Lordship.
A thinking Punter.
Welcome to the Club.
Cheers
darky

HI Bhagwan,
thanks for your input on this.

It is an interesting challenge to target - I am of the opinion that if you identify & eliminate the favorites most likely to fall over from the equation, you substantially increase or load your own SR. This assumes that one has a consistent system of shortlisting the best chances, of course?

Can you provide your workings for how you get to 33.5%+?

I would have thought that if I successfully eliminate one of the top favorites at least 2/3rds of the time, then the probability of the remaining favorite winning is closer to 50%.

I am unable to substantiate the hypothesis however as my probability maths is a little rusty!

cheers LG

Hay List, 'fixed' abscess on the foot, huge run in the Newmarket apparently took it's toll ..... All so easy AFTER the event, but it did have a big question mark over it prior to Last Friday's race.

And Helmet ..... someone here suggested it wouldn't win a race after it's hard run in a Group 1 event recently ..... So far, so good.

Two nags who've buttered up after having hard runs in top races and been beaten. So do we just look for those who've had the guts run out of them (a la Djokevich and Nadal) and 'scratch them from our selections?

One system I've seen is to lay those that won and ran career best time last start... it may have some merit, but I've no evidence either way, as I don't keep race times...maybe someone can help with this one?

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Hi Greystoke.

If one could sustain a 100% SR of separating the 2 Favs , then yes , it would be 50% SR.

But we do know that is very unlikely long term.

We are assuming based on past history over 10 yrs that the top 2 Favs win 50% of all races.

Now separate them so you have one selection per race.

===========================================

There is one strong method I can recommend having a go with .

RULES
Target the 2 Favs in each race.

Bet 4 units on the one you feel should win.
Bet 1 unit on the other, as a sort of saver bet.

This works very well & you will enjoy a 50% SR.
Hopefully the long runs of outs will be contained doing it this way & keep ones punting more interesting.

Delete any race with a fav <=2.00

__________________
Cheers.

I do times, and you are correct, mighty hard for a horse to back up next start after running a one-out fast time. Often this time is pace related anyway.

Peak Performamce Syndrome - a theory i have believed in since the mid 90"s.

Hello Raven again...

I concur with the 55% mark as an estimate for odds on Favs, based on UB's tester using current update of 73,241 lines.. It returned a SR of 57%

It also gave a SR = 35% for all favs in the sample(vrs 30% often quoted) which is handyu to know but hardly about long run probability eh?

Regards the somewhat daunting prospect of an odds on fav getting up more often than 1 in 2 races (and often giving us v poor value), it fazes me not as I am more interested in the 45% of odds on favorites which fall over = even worse value!

If we can identify these on a regular basis and dutch those just behind them in the betting - instead of nasty odds-on unders(pants) we get to Clover all overs?

Obviously been in the office too long 'ere... think its time to get back to the castle and get thee some dinner with Lady G!

LG

Doffs my cap to you, Sir Les

Just trying to find my way thru the darkness in 'ere!

LG