I have started this thread due to the recent discussion raised by Dale regarding Pre-Post Favourites. With the latest Bet Selctor update I have been able to do some testing back to December 2011. In addition to the system I posted under the Rock Hard thread, here is another.

Rules:

-must be Pre-Post favourite (determined by AAP)
-must be NSWTAB favourite at race start
-must be top Handicapper rating (equal top is ok)
-must be a last start favourite
-age 3-5
-allotted weight <59kg (not including claims)

Results from test period Dec 2011 - Mar 2012:

135 selections
72 winners
53% S/R
185 unit return
50 unit profit
37% POT

When combined with the Rock Hard system:

193 selections
101 winners
52% S/R
268 unit return
75 unit profit
38% POT

Only 4 months of data to test with but with only a few simple rules it could be an effective long term system. I'll run a check on selections for April so far and post up the results.

Hiya Mattio,

Can you please clarify 'top handicapper rating'?

Cheers mate,

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi TheSchmile,

Sorry mate, I should have clarified that the Handicapper rating is the rating the official handicapper gives the horse to allow them to compete in certain races such as Benchmark 80 etc. I'm not sure if this is in most formguides but they have in on the RISA website under Acceptances.

Cheers,

Matt.

Thanks again Mattio,

I'm assuming you're using NSW totes again so results look promising.

Did you include maidens in your rules?

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Yes mate NSWTAB dividends so better prices will make for better results. I have left maidens in the rules for this system as they are not detrimental to the system at this stage - quite the opposite actually.

In the test period there were 24 maiden selections for 15 winners at 63% S/R and a 70% POT. I am making 1 further rule in that the track must be either Good or Dead, Slow and Heavy tracks are to be avoided. This extra rule dropped off quite a few unprofitable bets and gave the following results for the combined systems:

168 selections
90 winners
53% S/R
241 unit return
73 unit profit
43% POT

Hi Mattio,

Very interesting stats here and theory. Does this include every day of the week, and all venues. Do you have a breakdown for say just saturdays,

Paul

Hey Mattio

Nice work here, be careful what you put up on a public forum though mate.

Hi Dale,

Yeah I know but as Bhagwan says you can post a system up and the majority of people will stop using it the minute it hits a bad run and inevitably favourites will hit a bad run.

I have already found another favourites system that gave me a 2% POT from over 800 selections in the 4 month test period so I am going to have some fun breaking that down.

I found a few nice filters around pre-post favourites that gave me a potential lay system over the same period with 90 selections and only 11 winners (all favourites too) for a 61% LOT at TAB prices.

Cheers,

Matt.

mattio,

Just a heads up that the favs have been running slightly above their natural strike rate and pot for the last 8-9 months.

Any systems base don favs over this period are liekly to show better results then can be expected over the longer term.

I suggest you check the strike rate of just every fav and see what it has produced for your results. Is it at or above 34% ? If so then I suggest you take a wait a see approach for these systems.

While there (probably) is no doubt that the fav strike rate has been running higher than the norm over the last 8-9 months, is it also possible that with the plethora of information available nowadays that the ACTUAL best horse is being picked by more of the info and is then backed into favoritism by the public and therefore winning at a higher strike rate?

This would thereby drag the strike rate up and maybe the current 34% average strike rate may be the new norm.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale