Some statistics on field sizes of 8 or less.

Some interesting posts in relation to backing the first 3 favourites. Back the 1st fav to breakeven and then set amount for the 2nd and 3rd favourite. Any other horse you lose the complete outlay

Basically for the period Jan 12 to May 12, I've run a test of all races for field sizes 8 or less and taken the strike rates of the top 3 in different areas. I've done this as by backing the top 3 favourites often requires the punter to monitor the movements of prices.

These are Metro and Rural races in Australia (mid week only)

Barrier
1 - 17%
2 - 13%
3 - 15%

TAB
1 - 22%
2 - 13%
3 - 17%

API
1 - 28%
2 - 19%
3 - 15%

Win%
1 - 21%
2 - 20%
3 - 16%

Place%
1 - 23%
2 - 23%
3 - 14%

AAP Market Price
1 - 29%
2 - 24%
3 - 16%

Starting Price
1 - 38%
2 - 21%
3 - 17%

As you can see your Starting Price has the best combined three strike rates.

But the value is more in the 2nd and 3rd ratings.

Just out of interest for anyone

Thank you.

Now thats the sort of quality posts we used to get when I first started posting here.

A return to the good old days - One hopes so.

Cheers
darky

Tote Price
1 - 37.33% (loss 13.50%)
2 - 22.18% (loss 15.41%)
3 - 15.63% (loss 16.19%)

Top Three (not cumulative)
25.05% (loss 15.03%)

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By looking at the AAP Market price you have

1st - 29%
2nd - 24%
3rd - 16%

The best strike rate for 2nd and 3rd raters

With some rough calculations I get the following

If you 1st rater wins 29% of the time you breakeven
If the 2nd and 3rd rater wins you get 40%
Anything else is a loser

To make anysort of profit on this system you would need to define your market percentages at 36.22% or less for the 2nd and 3rd.

I hope my calculations are correct on the attachment.

Regards

Attached Files

Market Percentages 8 Field horses.xlsx (14.4 KB, 516 views)

Hi Vortech ,
Have a look at 900 M races.
Bert Bogart used to bet the Fav @$4 +

Cheers

Sorry DD - I don't have any figures on favourites, only starting prices

Vortech, you do come up with some good stuff.

My oath Barn.
One of the new breed to keep a eye on as is Lord Greystoke..

Plugged in all the top ones Vortech combining Market price and SP as the one entry .....

718 seln's
302 winners
LOT 15.13%

I actually thought it might have been worse but it proves again that the popular filters lead to an overbet horse. That's logical !! Everyone loves a winner !!! (Top S/R), but that's not what this caper is all about Vortech .....

Top 3

23,255 seln's
6,525 winners
LOT 16.16%

I'm seeing a lot of LOT 15%.
If I put $1 on every horse in every Race I will end up with LOT of 15% at the end of the week.