Out of interest and looking at 2011 results
Taking only Metro races on Saturday meetings
Take the Top Starting Price horse and then the different range of prices per favourite for the following

1.1 to 1.5 69 races, 57 winners +10.8%POT SR 82.60%
1.6 to 2.0 248 races, 127 winners -9.4%POT SR 51.20%
2.1 to 2.5 366 races, 149 winners -6.0%POT SR 40.70%
2.6 to 3.0 375 races, 139 winners +3.8%POT SR 37.1%
3.1 to 3.5 389 races, 97 winners -18.1%POT SR 24.9%
3.6 to 4.0 260 races, 54 winners -21.5%POT SR 20.8%
4.1 + 335 races, 68 winners -5.6%POT SR 20.3%

I might do more work on this if anyone is interested.
Can isolate particular tracks etc.

I'm at a standstill with my punting and just trying to help other with statistical information.

I find it easier to find a good educated punter that not many people follower, let him do the work and back the horses.

Not enjoyable but I'm sure my drive will come back.

V interesting Vortech.

Are you able to cut n dice by Race No. or even the same stats for R1-4 ? I ask because there appears to be a prevalence of 2.6-3.0 'ish winning favs in the early races (although don't have the stats to back this up, hence my question)

Also, are you able to expand on this one over the rest of the week for (a) gallops (b) harness?

1.1 to 1.5 69 races, 57 winners +10.8%POT SR 82.60%

Cheers LG

PS what can I do for you apart from not give you too much dull work here??

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I'll have a look tonight for you after university.

unfortunately can't really do much on the harness racing but the other stuff I should be able to work out something for you

Nice one mate, thanks.. enjoy the 'college of knowledge'.

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Accounting and Society not the most interesting subject.

However some could be applied to horse racing in respect to positive research (back testing) and normative reserach (future trends)

Like your style mate... reminds me of my stats class in the accounting degree - enjoyed the aspect of building predictive models, never did get around to applying it to the punt however (too busy putting food on table, young family etc).

Have a good one.

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I have a bit more data, so here's how it looks:

1.1 to 1.5 606 races, 441 winners +1.53% POT SR 72.77%
1.6 to 2.0 2848 races, 1368 winners -12.79% POT SR 48.03%
2.1 to 2.5 4297 races, 1646 winners -11.75% POT SR 38.31%
2.6 to 3.0 5092 races, 1572 winners -13.95% POT SR 30.87%
3.1 to 3.5 4940 races, 1327 winners -11.71% POT SR 26.86%
3.6 to 4.0 3550 races, 804 winners -14.69% POT SR 22.65%
4.1 + 3656 races, 683 winners -12.38% POT SR 18.68%

This was Saturday metro only.

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Thanks CP, one year was a little inconclusive.

I re-run the Saturday Metro results and get very similar results to yours over my data.

It is interesting that the starting price rating is irrelevant in the strike rate of a horse winning long-term.

Basically the price is the factor and a horse can be ranked 1, 2, 3 or 4 in starting price rankings and yet the strike rate per win stays the same.

This data supports that the heavy favs are underbet and good value ($1.10 - $1.50).

I concur, UB. What might be best way to stake for these based on 3 different risk profiles, I wonder...

1. lower risk/return
2. medium
3. higher risk/return etc

???

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB