Hi Crew,

Here's a system I've come up with at random, based on allocating points the top two Tatts/DS/NR and Skyform picks.

2 points for a top pick and 1 for 2nd pick.

Rules of elimination:
NSW, VIC, QLD only
1/ 1200-2000m
2/ Minimum standard benchmark 0-68
3/ Must be 100%+ profit, dutching all selections over 3 points using Tatts early prices.
4/ Minimum 2 qualifiers
5/ Minimum points for top selection = 6, again betting all horses above 3 points

Today's selections (in order):
Warwick Farm
5 - 11 9 5
7 - 13 4

The system came up with two interesting and quite long-priced selections in Conch $18 and Our Brightest Star $25 as top raters.

I'll probably stick to Metro races or only races with morning pre-post prices, as I'm hoping to find some value.

Who knows? Let's play.

Have a great day!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

After the win of Catkins earlier, I'll trial these specials.

Horses must be 5+ points clear and $3+ available fixed in morning line.

Warwick Farm
2 - 3 (8+ pts)

6 - 2 (5+ pts)

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Woops
6-2 failed the 1200-2000 rule...

Leave that one for another day.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Warwick Farm
5 - 11 9 5 / 9 2nd $4.1/1.6
7 - 13 4 / 4 won $6.90 (13 was heavily backed from $25 into $11 and came 4th)

OUT 5 In $6.90 POT 38%

Dutching the Selections on Betfair with one unit on each race:
Out 2 IN 3.8 POT 90%

Hmmmm the plot thickens.....

Ideas welcome. Fire at will!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Going great, TheSchmile.

Are you keeping records for Place results.

You there Barny?

I see you are lurking in that dressing gown sash belt of yours with complimentary red dot wine box

LMAO!!!

I'm still going here i tell ya!

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Thanks Michael G,

I thought of dutching the place for the last race at Warwick Farm, as the place prices were $2.90 and $5.75 at the start of the day on Tatts, representing a 95% POT at the time. TASTY. It might pay to look at when there are only two selections?

I'll try and come up with some lay ideas

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

I don't get rule No. 3 TheSchmille "Must be 100%+ profit" ?? What's that about please ??

Hiya Barny,

Sorry mate I missed your post amongst the 'excitement' going on around it......

The 100%+ profit bit means you must be able to get 100% profit by dutch betting all selections over 3 points.

So if the early morning prices on tatts for selections are:
$3 and $3.50 - the profit when dutching both is 61% so it's a no bet race.
$4 and $5 - the profit when dutching both is 122% so it's a bettable race.

I use Oddschecker dutching calculator to work out what stake to use when dutch staking.

Rule of thumb: Whatever stake your using, the profit must be double your stake for it to be a bettable race. Once you've put in your prices and stake, just below the 'total staked' column at the bottom of the webpage, the 'profit' column needs to be showing double or more for you to proceed with your bet.

I hope this all makes sense Barny, many things seem clear when I write them but may not be as clear to the reader. Keep the questions/input coming.

This 100%+ concept is just something I've thrown out there as an idea to get some value, so any further ideas are much appreciated.

Have a great night!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty