Following on from a couple of posts on the $1 a day thread I thought I would open up a new thread so you maths boffins (or anyone else for that matter) could let me (and anyone else considering something like this) know what the best way to go forward would be.

I was looking at a number of older posts trying to find an idea that I could implement on my bot and found one from Bhagwan that sort of worked but not quite and while researching his idea I stumbled on something that looks okay so far (I have checked back to December 1, 2012). I’ll keep checking back whenever I get some more time but, for now, I wanted to pose the following questions/thoughts.

The system is in front at level a stakes (something I didn’t initially think it would be).

I am checking trying to win $1 a day and then stopping at a winner SAW using back bets (I would want to start out at trying to win $5 a day). A stop loss for the day is required as I am using 100% recovery during the day, which is approximately 6x the amount to win. So if I were trying to win $1 the loss would be around $6 (depending on horse odds, etc). This would therefore be around a $30 loss when trying to win $5 a day. Bear in mind that sometimes odds on pops will be bet.

Raw stats
December – 30 days, 26 winning days, 4 losing days, Level stakes profit $9.89 ($1 amount to win)
January so far 24 days, 23 winning days, 1 losing day, Level stakes profit $18.73 ($1 amount to win)

So total 54 days with 49 winning days & 5 losing days, Level stakes profit $28.62 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 90.7% daily strike rate.

What I would like to know is would you just bet this level stakes or try and use recovery? My problem is that if some type of recovery is not used than maybe there will be 6 days before recovering just the one loss let alone any more losses.

The order of losses were as follows (for $1 a day):

-6.48
+1
-4.09
-1.81
+1
+1
-3.73
then 31 winning days in a row until yesterday
-4.27
and a win today
+1

I will just say that I wouldn’t be able to afford trying to recover 100% or maybe 50% as the losses would soon mount if there are more losses (bear in mind that the above losses would be multiplied by 5 if trying to win $5 a day with a liability of around $30). Trying to recover $6 in one hit would therefore leave me liable for $180 should another losing day happen ($6 recovery amount to win x $30 base liability).

I hope all that makes sense. Any help would be appreciated.

I’m thinking of slowly increasing the bets but in line with the liability rather than the amount to win per day and maybe just recovering one loss at a time.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Ocho

I have a number of systems that run using bots with loss recovery. One of my systems has a 90% SR, average losing streak 1.9 and max. losing streak of 5 over the last 2 years.

With these numbers you can recover losses agressively say using fibonacci sequence.

My other two other systems use loss recovery tailor made for each. All my sytems are positive at level stakes. Loss recovery adds 9-10% to my POT.

I suggest you trial your system for at least 6 months before using real money or use small stakes.

Unfortunately my thinking only goes so far, then I am in the unknowns. But having tried all sorts of loss chasing to a limited degree I have found their comes a time or at least it does for me when I have to pull the pin and abandon the series.

You are already doing that with the SAW stratergy per day. Maybe an extension of that will be when you go into that losing run sequence and the recovery bet starts to escalate when the price is really short and you start to feel a bit of stress building up.

That point is different for everybody, depending on their personal circumstances.

Once we start thinking about how to deal with this, to me, unfortunately, the stratergy to win $1 per day is the restricting element. And, if you want to pursue this $1 a day, great, go for it, because, until I get the negatives out of my mind, I cannot be a positive influence which is exactly what you do not need.

I hope someone else can advise on how to extend your life into that losing run.

Now, you have to remember that at present I am into a losing run sequence of 16, fortunately, their was no bet yesterday and today but it looks like their might be six on Saturday. I have decided to pull the pin on 20 lossers or 22 which means that saturday either sees the series win or lose then I might start again with a slight altering of the rules.

The most I can lose in a series is $56 on a 20 loss series. Maybe an adaption of the Retirement Plan might be worth looking at. I noticed how close it was to what I want to do, but mine does not have the fancy maths built into it, but the bets are extremly close to what I do anyway based on my average odds.

It is the odds on and short prices that kill you but the Retirement Plan sort od caters for that. Also have alook at The Staking Machine staking plans, their might be something their that gives you some inspiration so you can adapt to suit your style and comfort zone. Bear in mind that nobody has the perfect one, so, your adaption might just be for you.

Good Luck

Star

Thanks pjr & Star

pjr - Fibonacci may be okay but, as I said, I would have to watch the liability side of the bets (how much I would lose each day trying to recover the loss). I notice you had 5 losses in a row for a 90% strike rate. Bhagwan once posted that a maximum run of outs for 90% should be 3 so I guess sometimes the horses don't listen to the maths.

Star - I will check out the staking machine and retirement plan although I vaguely remember checking both those before and I think you had to pay for the staking machine and the retirement plan was a divisor type thing which I just can't get my head around.

Just to clarify - I would be looking for about a $30 loss to begin with trying to win $5 for the day. I am looking for a balance between that $30 not escalating too quickly to $150, $300 or more but, at the same time, trying to get back to square as soon as possible rather than waiting about a week to get back to square (depending on the loss and odds).

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

You can download a trial version which has all the various back and lay staking systems on it. About twenty of each. Well worth a look. And it's free.

As far as the Retirement and divisor I sort of agree, but noticed how similar my bets would be compared to the fancy maths of the retirement.

I just made mine up, And then realized mine is a combination of level stakes plus a progression when the odds would not recover.

One thing the Retirement has that might have some merit is when you have a winner that does not recover all your losses then your new loss is adjusted and you take that into account for your next bet depending on the price available.

I hope that makes sense. For guys who say they get above a 50% strike rate then I have to say they are a bigger stud then me.

STAR

I've attached one of the spreadsheets that I've put some divs into and added a couple of formulae to make things easier.
I've rounded up the stake column as I don't think anyone invests with odd dollars and cents.
I also included comments from their forum to advise how to use it.

Attached Files

rfsp.xlsx (155.5 KB, 453 views)

Thanks Surround. I'm not sure that I really understand it but I'm sure others will appreciate it.

By the way, another winning day today.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Now, that was written before I hit gold on the eighteenth bet. The $44 winner at Warwick Farm.

But what I said I still think, and the reason for that is by trying to win $1 you leave yourself with no margin for luck.

Making sense, probably not, but, my philosopy keeps me in the game even if I can not spell it and can't be assed to spell check after the drenching we have got here, plus without power for 36 hours.

Pete

Thanks Star. Sorry to here of your drenching. I hope everything returns to normal sometime soon.

Yes, trying to win $1 sounds easy enough but it is soooo hard.

You are right that its the shorties which will stuff this up.

Having said that there was another winner today making it just the one loss so far this month (from 29 days). So whatever happens tomorrow January will be in profit by a fair way which has been accounted for in the previous mentioned skinny 5 month profit figure.

Still strange how the last 3 months have been really good while the 2 months before that were abysmal (particularly September).

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

pjr,

What BOT do you use for the recovery - whether that be fibonacci or tailor made etc , if I may ask?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB