Hi All,

Having read a lot of the previous threads, one aspect that has always intrigued me is the concept of filters.

My intention of this thread is to look at when a filter becomes 'over-bet' and then as such, becomes a detriment to our profit.

My first contribution is Barriers - I have read on here, and believe that the inside barriers are over-bet. So with this in mind I took a system that had a little bit of success, and applied the filter, barrier 6 or wider.

The S/R dropped slightly but the POT lifted at a lot higher level.

Now I will preface this by saying, I do not have a database and have used a free source to look at the figures and I doubt if it is overly reliable, but all I did was run the system, then add the filter and the results were positive.

I am interested in 2 things:-

1 If the database guys out there have ever run this filter and does it return similar results?

2 Are there any other 'over-bet' factors people believe can have a similar effect.

Cheers

Brett

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“Money, horse racing and women, three things the boys just can't figure out.”

1. Yes inside barriers are a well known to be overbet. The further out you get the more the profit it likely to rise.

2. Yes there are many. Some depend on the situation. For example first uppers who have won first up before are generally overbet, but resumers in general are underbet. There are many more situations like that as well.

They are generally overbet for a reason. exploit the reason, don't go for next layer of low hanging fruit

Hi Benton and UB,

I fear I have tried to feast on Low Hanging fruit for years.............

UB, I know you used to have a great site to test systems on, what happened to it if you don't mind me asking?

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“Money, horse racing and women, three things the boys just can't figure out.”

I found under $3 for me were overbet and unprofitable and since I now wont bet anything under that the profit has increased considerably..
This applies to both wet and dry conditions.

Cheers

Beware that by saying "I will only bet above my breakeven point" only moves the breakeven higher and greatly reduces the bets. It does not improve the bottom line. Moving away from the low prices may bring it into profit, but get too greedy and you run the risk of losing out. You are better to ask why the bets are overbet in a similar manner that RP did for longshots. Remove some obvious deadwood to improve the bottomline.

i follow your posts darky, and i remember very well your longshot winner at last years Melbourne carnival. and well done on getting rid of barney, the thread closed down and my post congratulating you got lost i think. its a better place now.

1. Barriers are a track-specific factor and not a universal factor.

2. You need to use metrics that are far-removed from what the public is using. The metrics that the public is using are already reflected in the tote odds.

Pauline had a famous quote which I will pinch "Please explain."

Racetrack betting markets are like any other financial market. The price of a horse reflects all of the hopes, fears, dreams, WAG's, SWAG's, careful analysis, and silly guesses of all of the bettors on that horse and is reflected in the horse's price. The more popular metrics are more thoroughly incorporated into that price and provide no overlay opportunity. You need to find out what everyone else is doing and go the opposite direction.