System just dropped on my desk. UK and free SNM. But it begs the question.
What is the strike rate of the LSW Fav in =>10 fields?
5 simple rules
LAY THE FAV THAT MEETS THE FOLLOWING
LSW
FAV between $2 and $6
=>10 Runners
Soft to good
Age 3 to 7.

They are spruiking 84% winning lays and 130% ROI.

The bell ringing here is that it is the Fav. So there is only one qualifying horse. And every second system is saying back the LSW.

Well Beton, 3/3 yesterday Lay winners:
R5 Ipswich Ziggies Dance $4.50
R5 Randwick Perplexity $4.00
R7 Muswellbrook Strobic $3.75

Another gem from Beton, thanks for that, will look further

Interesting angle.

Makes you wonder how many sucker plays there are out there which get milked by the few 'in the know', every day. In many(most?) cases, the direct opposite to the racing myths which get passed down and passed on by the clueless crowd??

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

If you layed the Fav regardless you could expect between 67 - 72 % successful Lays.

And you would lose overall.

This takes out the odds on Favs which get up to 82% depending on price. It takes out the heavy tracks. and it is the LSW.

Considering the price, the going and field size the average SR is 27.78%. Thus if this group is claiming 84% one must consider this is a dramatic difference 11.78%. We are not looking at just a few oddball races. We are talking of 50% of all races.

We could almost get a very positive result Backing the fav in =>10 fields, good and better between $2-6 IF NOT LSW.

If somebody could test this please. If it is a good result I will post my addy

You're right Darky, but you need to Lay favourites for a min average price of $3.20 to break even by my rough maths. If you could Lay them for the average Tote price you could make a profit but Betfairs SP/Lay price is nearly always greater, then less the 6.5% commish, you don't stand a chance, otherwise we'd all be doing it. The other alternative is to increase the strike rate to 84% as they quote. Good if it's true?

>>



SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: CURRENT_LSW FAV 11/11/2011-03/09/2012



WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR



Races Bet: 1004 1004 1004 1004 1003 962



Races Won: 197 489 235 117 76 40



S.R./Race: 19.6% 48.7% 23.4% 11.7% 7.6% 4.2%



Outlay($): 1004.00 1004.00 5154.00 5154.00 21400.00 65220.00



Return : 764.70 845.46 4125.30 3658.50 15530.60 49684.90



$ Profit : -239.30 -158.54 -1028.70 -1495.50 -5869.40 -15535.10



% P.O.T. : -23.8% -15.8% -20.0% -29.0% -27.4% -23.8%

NOT VERY GOOD AT ALL

Interesting, I wonder though do you have any stats if ONLY the favs @$3.20 + are layed?

it got the better of me so I ran it :

It shows an 11% loss laying the fav based on the original rules.

in fact swap the rule of laying to backing and you make a 2% profit after commission.