Have noticed lately subscribers expressing the wish to become professional punters. They have received lots of advice but no-one has told them of the need for a lot of hard work and record keeping.
You need to keep extensive records and be continually reviewing successful criteria and trends.
Most important factors are strike rate, POT and losing sequences.
As an example from 5/6/93 - 31/5/03 the following are some representative figures.
(Note covers only Saturday & Public Holiday meetings)

Sydney : No of meetings - 568
Races meeting primary criteria - 3334
No of bets - 653
Outlay 19815 Units
Return - 25398 Units
POT 28%
Strike rate - 38.9%

Melbourne : No of meetings - 578
Races meeting primary criteria - 3136
No of bets - 667
Outlay - 28051 Units
Return - 34801 Units
POT 24%
Strike rate - 52.3%

Brisbane : No of meetings - 550
Races meeting primary criteria - 2673
No of bets - 790
Outlay - 30726 Units
Return - 36727 Units
POT 20%
Strike rate - 46.5%

Adelaide : No of meetings - 529
Races meeting primary criteria - 2743
No of bets - 195
Outlay - 7988 Units
Return - 9700 Units
POT 21%
Strike rate - 49.7%

In total over 584 race dates :
Won 346 (59%)
Lost 216 (37%)
No Bets 21 (4%)

Analyzing in 3 month periods i.e. Summer, winter etc.

Of 40 periods over 10 years - wins 36
Losses 4
Worst daily loss - <-218> units (24/9/99)
Worst losing run - <-616> units (17/3/01 - 28/7/01)
Worst period result -332 Units (Autumn 2000)
Other losing periods (-58, -168, -1)

Period average over 10 years :
Outlay - 2164.50 Units
Return - 2666.65 Units
POT - 23.15%

Over last 3 years - Winter 2000 - Autumn 2003
Outlay - 2229.50 Units
Return - 2739.67 Units
POT - 22.88%

Over last year
Outlay - 2013.50 Units
Return - 2411.75 Units
POT - 19.78%

Last period - Autumn 2003
Outlay - 1729 Units
Return - 2100 Units
POT 21.46%

Know this is very longwinded but intended to give an idea of workload required.

Records can be finetuned and various trends identified.

Computers for record keeping have made my life so much easier.
Previously had up to 20 handwritten lever arch files now down to 2.

So forget all the hype and the promise of easy riches. Its HARD WORK.

Thanks chips41,
Point taken, just anlyising your post there would you say in general, it is a slightly more risky business In Autumn & Winter?? especially to commence operations.

Partypooper,

Analysis reveals the following :

Over last 40 3month periods (i.e. 10 years)

Winter - +5734 Units
Spring - +5187 Units
Summer - +5743 Units
Autumn - +3382 Units

Computers are wonderful. Took all of 2 minutes to assemble this data.

Cheers,

Chips41

a point that arises is commitment.

most systems work but the punter is not always on the job. this is a real test of the will of the punter to apply his trade.

topsy99,

Re your reply

COMMITTMENT - exactly. That was the whole point of my thread. You need to be committed and work continuosly to keep on top.

Your second point intrigues me. MOST SYSTEMS WORK.!!!

Therefore why any committment needed. Simply pay the money to promoters and watch the money roll in.
No committment there. These pages seem to be full of complaints from people trying the easy way out and buying systems which require minimal effort.

Since you say most system work could you please advise on the ones that offer best Stike Rate, POT & lowest losing sequence.

Further to my earlier disclosure average daily figures over 584 meetings are :

No of bets - 4.12 per day
Winners per day - 1.91 per day
Average daily outlay - 154.94 Units
Average daily return - 190.72 Units
Average daily profit - 35.78 Units
POT - 23%

Advise systems with comparable results and I will retire to the easy life with no HARD WORK or COMMITTMENT.

Regards,

Chips41

Very interesting reading Chips ...

You mentioned "Worst daily loss - <-218> units (24/9/99)" ... now that reads as a VERY SIGNIFICANT loss compared to your overall figures ...

Can you describe that day in detail? I think the psychology of what you went through would be very enlightening to anyone thinking of being a professional...

my comment on systems is that when presented to the punter most systems can be proven to work usually statistally or on past records.
when applying these systems in practice either by me or anyone else they dont seem to work like they were demonstrated.
punters who complain are then shown that had they followed the system they would have made money.

the breakdown usually happens because the punter goes golfing on the good days or doesnt have the fortitude to follow through or the money.

this is why good punters look for higher strike rates or factors that dont present formidable issues when betting the system.
e.g. betting level stakes.

many of the top punters and big punters historically have been what is known as fearless. i dont think there are many of those around or many that survive.

i dont want to imply anything other than my experiene and that is that when offered concrete evidence that a system works historically it is most likely correct.

noseyparker,

Thanks for your input.
The whole exercise is about building confidence.
Average strike rate comes in at 46.3% across all states.
Average daily outlay - 154.94 Units
Average daily return - 190.72 Units
Average outlay per bet - 37.58 Units
Average return per bet - 46.25 Units

So that loss of 218 Units represents approx. 6 consecutive losing bets.

So on that one day probably did not back 1 winner in 6 bets.
(Note : sometimes back 2 horses per race.)

More important to me is worst losing run - i.e. <-616> units from 17/3/01 - 28/7/01.

That indicates to me that to have confidence need a bank to withstand that loss without seriously denting confidence.

Bets are structured to take out 100 Units per winner so with bank of 2000 Units even with worst losing run in 10 years would only deplete bank by approx <-30%>.

These are the important measures to keep in mind when punting.

Perhaps should clear up a possible misconception.

As I said earlier trends, patterns etc. must be continually monitored.

Figures posted are for the latest variation of my system which is continually being refined.
The point being with an extensive data base any time I believe there may be a missing factor overlooked I can run the simulation over an extended period.

Yes, I know you will say I am retrofitting but the figures give me confidence and keep me going.
My actual figures over the last 5 years are slightly down on those published (POT ~ 16%).

The MAJOR POINT of my thread is the need for WORK to keep on top. Not to wake up one morning and think "I wanna be a pro" now what are the tax implications on my substantial winnings!

On the figures published above average daily winnings - 35.78 Units. (To take out 100 Units).

As explained above to give confidence need bank of 2000 Units (although in worst scenario only 30% ever risked - 600 Units).

So bank should double approx. every year (2000/35.78 = 56 days).

May sound very pedestrian to the more ambitious but that is the way I have built myself into this position.

Can always run system to achieve higher daily returns but involves Lower POT, Lower Strike Rate & much higher maximum loss.

Aim is to achieve the most comfortable position with regards to Risk & Return.

Cheers,

Chips41

Chips41, Your time taken to reply to my original post is most appreciated, and all that you said has been carefully monitored. I just "wanna say" that(a) I have been "investing " for about 39 years so far, so that WAKE UP ONE MORNING was a long time in coming, and (b) I would be happy with about 15% POT. so no need for the tax incentives.
You obviously cannot(would not) disclose how you achieve your very impressive results, but how about just one pointer, something concrete to help me on my way!!!??????

partypooper,

As stated in first post firmly believe most important criteria are Strike Rate, POT and losing sequence.

Not long ago I think it was either Steve Waugh or Mark Taylor in a Test Series won the toss on every occasion. So the losing sequence for the opposing captain was 5 with an event that had a 50% probability or strike rate.

That is why losing sequences are so important. They condition you to the inevitable bad runs but having run extensive simulations and confidence in your methods you can overcome these spells. That is why in my respone to "noseyparker" i didn't dwell on the worst losing day of <-218> units but was more concerned with the worst losing sequence.

Last period Autumn had more losing days than average (50%) but still worked through it and came out OK.

Below will list last periods results :
1/3 Outlay 150 Units Return 200 Units Profit +50 Units
8/3 113, 100, <-13>
15/3 215, 500, +285
22/3 122, 100, <-22>
29/3 118, 0, <-118>
5/4 170, 300, +130
12/4 No bet
19/4 No bet
21/4 105, 200, +95
25/4 123, 0, <-123>
26/4 54, 100, +46
3/5 105, 100, <-5>
10/5 72, 100, +28
17/5 178, 300, +122
24/5 105, 100, <-5>
31/5 99, 0, <-99>

In total : Outlay 1729 Units
Return 2100 Units
Profit 371 Units
POT 21.46%

Breakdown showed :
Syd: 17 Bets Outlay 559 Return 600
Melb : 11 Bets Outlay 430 Return 600
Bris : 15 Bets Outlay 597 Return 800
Adel : 4 Bets Outlay 143 Return 100

You asked for a little something to work on.
In my first post mentioned number of races that satisfy primary criteria.

In Sydney total 3334 races
Melbourne total 3136 races
Brisbane total 2673 races
Adelaide total 2743 races

Average number of races per day satisfying primary criteria :
Sydney - 5.89
Melbourne - 5.44
Brisbane - 4.88
Adelaide - 5.2

The primary criteria is that the total number of starters in a race MUST NOT EXCEED 12.

It all comes down to STRIKE RATE, POT & LOSING SEQUENCE.

Sorry if this once again has become a little long-winded but as you can probably appreciate this is something of a passion for me.

Regards,

Chips41