Are we all being deceived by hype without realising it?

As the sun rises on another day, a few sneak out early and pick up a paper. They sit back over a cuppa and look for a value favourite in the weekday races. AAP have crunched a few numbers the day before and have come up with some prepost prices. There's only two brands of paper ownership of any consequence and both mastheads have sourced the same data to print, save a few editorial tweaks by the Racing Editor to make it look like a custom assessment.

So 'old mate' and a million others have seen a fave called 'Besthope' going round at a provincial track at 4:15 with a pre post of $3.30. "Looks like value to me", says old mate, "...gotta a couple of placings in last 3 starts". By the time it's lunchtime the TV and radio boys have jumped on board and they don't want to be too contrarian, no good rocking the boat, so they've picked 'Besthope' too in the top 3.

(Has anyone actually done an assessment on their own yet?)

In the meantime, a few smarties have done their own assessments and reckon 'Besthope' is rated at $8, but they're in the minority.

10 mins to start time and 'Besthope' has opened at around the $3.30 - $3.70 mark on the totes, bookmakers and exchange and still ranked the first favourite. Another group of 'followers' see that and think 'value' again (without really knowing) and pile some money on. The price starts to firm, more 'followers' cotton on and pile more money on 'Besthope'. It starts at $2.90 and comes 4th!

Is this what really happens on a day to day basis?

Essentially YES.
Prepost is computer generated with a dash of human intervention. But their market is up there in the 150% range. So the prices must go out to become 100%. But some come down, so others must go out further. And the clincher is "What happens to the PP when there is a scratching or two?" Or is the PP no longer relevant? The answer is !!!! We will leave that for another time and place.

Considering that the PP is for all runners pre-scratching, their fav win rates is on par with tote favs.

What happens when the PP and the on course openers coincide? This is history and present coinciding. Has the on course openers added anything or have they too jumped on the money market?

How many punters rate their own. Very few. How many punters doing their own ratings win in the big league? The big league win more often because they factor in all aspects (over 200 factors) correctly. That's why betting HK is easier.

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"God made man in his image". He then went to great lengths to ensure that each and every person was unique. God then pondered and said "I will call these human, as very few will rise from the herd to be called individual" http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ttons/quote.gif

Seymour R2 was a good example of punters failing to take a reality check and ignore the hype. I had two ratings for Tuscus of $26 and $18, and it starts at $1.77.

It was a photo, but 'old mate' ME, layed it for a couple of C notes

Good thinking .
Didn,t rate anywhere with me either.
I had it at $8

Your business cards. Picture of you on the front and missus on the back.
My business card went out of print when they introduced the dollar coin.

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"God made man in his image". He then went to great lengths to ensure that each and every person was unique. God then pondered and said "I will call these human, as very few will rise from the herd to be called individual" http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ttons/quote.gif

Um?? Wally

A slang term for a one hundred dollar banknote. The "C" in C-note refers to the Roman numeral for 100

But just in case you think I'm pulling your leg:

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When someone pulls a "ton" out of their wallet, we say that they are flashing their business card. The flash ones have the C notes, the well to do have the fifties and the plebs only have the tens and twenties. Must just be a sandgroper thing. In the main they have a male on one side and a female on the other. So we say that your business card comes complete with your picture on one side and your wife's picture on the other. But then we have more time dream up these things because we don't need daylight saving.

__________________
"God made man in his image". He then went to great lengths to ensure that each and every person was unique. God then pondered and said "I will call these human, as very few will rise from the herd to be called individual" http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ttons/quote.gif